Here’s the current situation with the run for the 2016 Republican presidential nomination, thanks to Public Policy Polling’s newest Republican national poll.
1. Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker is leading the 2016 field with 20 percent of national support, though his support is down 5 percentage points from March. Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush (17 percent) and Texas Sen. Ted Cruz (16 percent) are well within striking distance.
2. Cruz’s support was 5 percent in March and has pushed up to 16 percent nationwide. Since he announced he would seek the 2016 nomination, his name recognition with GOP primary voters increased from 61 percent to 82 percent.
3. Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky also has seen a decent gain in momentum: from 4 percent support to 10 percent, nationally.
4. Support for Ben Carson has dropped amid a gain from fellow conservative Cruz, from 18 percent to 10 percent over the past month. Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee has seen support drop from 10 percent to 6 percent since March.
5. Bush continues to struggle. His favorability among Republican voters is down to 39 percent against and 37 percent for. Only 27 percent of “very conservative” voters support Bush, while 55 percent do not.
6. Marco Rubio has the highest favorability with GOP primary voters: 55 percent. This is good news leading into his probable April 13 announcement, although he had only 6 percent national support.
“This contest is starting to bear some resemblance to the 2012 Republican nomination fight,” said Dean Debnam, president of Public Policy Polling. “A couple of months ago Ben Carson was the hot thing in the field, now Ted Cruz is and Carson’s support is drying up. It’s very reminiscent of the boom and bust we saw with various candidates four years ago. And Jeb Bush remaining steady as others rise and fall is also similar to how things went for Mitt Romney that cycle.”
The random telephone survey of roughly 450 Republican primary voters was conducted March 26-31 with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.7 percentage points.
