New applications for unemployment insurance benefits jumped by 16,000 to 276,000 at the end of October, the Department of Labor reported Thursday.
Economists had expected 262,000 new claims.
Thursday’s numbers represent a slight movement away from the rock-bottom levels jobless claims have plumbed over the course of 2015. Applications for jobless benefits are among the brightest spots in a U.S. economy that has seen some potential signs of weakness in other indicators.
The four-week moving average for claims rose by 3,500 to 262,750. That average is still at levels not seen since the 1970s.
Jobless claims, which are published on a weekly basis, are viewed as a high-frequency sign of the labor market’s health, with fewer claims thought to mean fewer layoffs and more job growth.
Some economists, however, think that the relationship between unemployment insurance claims and layoffs may have loosened in recent months. It’s possible that fewer people who get laid off are bothering to apply for benefits, because of the improvement in the jobs outlook.
Whether ultra-low jobless claims still translate to job growth will be tested Friday morning with the release of the October jobs report. Private-sector economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect the report to show the unemployment rate ticking down from 5.1 percent to 5 percent. Investors expect around 190,000 new jobs in the month, more than enough to keep the unemployment rate falling.
September saw just 142,000 new jobs, and August only 136,000. While those totals are also enough to keep the unemployment rate steady or falling, similar numbers for October would represent a marked slowdown in the recovery from last year and early this year.
With weak reported economic output growth in the third quarter and some other signs of potential cracks in the economy, officials at the Federal Reserve are looking for confirmation from the jobs report that the good news in the weekly jobless claims numbers are real.
The Department of Labor said that there were no special distortions affecting Thursday’s jobless claims data.
There were 1.9 million people getting unemployment insurance benefits of all durations, which are available for up to 26 weeks. The corresponding number a year ago was 2.1 million.
California saw by far the biggest increase claims for unemployment with 2,269, which the state said was related to layoffs in the service sector and in agriculture, forestry, hunting and fishing.
Michigan, meanwhile, saw claims fall 2,600. The state provided no comments on the drop.
