American military and intelligence officials Monday were grappling with the dangerous predicament that confronted them after North Korea’s Kim Jong Il died of a heart attack, leaving a nuclear arsenal in the hands of his young and relatively unknown son. Kim Jong Un, 27, will take charge of a nation on near universal poverty, with pockets of starvation, that had been ruled by his eccentric father whose preoccupation had been obtaining nuclear capabilities.
U.S. military officials, who have been in contact with allies in South Korea, said there was no immediate change in the “force posture” of North Korean troops in the hours after Kim Jong Il’s death was reported.
But some experts predicted that could change in coming days. Paul Stares, with the Council on Foreign Relations, a Washington think tank, said North Korea’s posturing may increase as its new leader tries to affirm his leadership. “Further provocations might be initiated,” he said. Jong Un could order a “possible missile or nuclear test to burnish his leadership credentials.”
South Korea has reason to be concerned about an unpredictable move from the north. Last year, North Korea bombarded South Korea’s Yeonpyeong island killing two soldiers and injuring civilians in an escalation of violence not seen since the 1950s. Earlier that year, North Korea fired a torpedo at a South Korean vessel killing 46 sailors.
South Korean officials asked the United States, which has 30,000 troops stationed in its nation, to increase its unmanned aerial surveillance of the North Korean border, according to reports from Asian wire services.
Jong Un is not the only enigma U.S. intelligence officials are dealing with. The North Korean military and political establishment, particularly the commanders heading the nation’s nuclear program, is an intelligence “black hole,” said Scott Snyder, senior fellow for Korea Studies and Director of the Program on U.S.-Korea Policy at the Council on Foreign Relations.
The North Koreans “clearly have made progress in building their uranium enrichment program,” Snyder said. But its “Achilles heel” is the urgent need for economic assistance from its neighbors to fend off starvation for large numbers of its citizens. “Jong Un needs cash from the outside,” Snyder said. “Raising cash is the pressure point for the leadership.”
Some experts said it isn’t even clear whether the top military commanders in North Korea will accept Jong Un as a leader, or if he’ll be restricted to a figure head role.
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But the weight of his father’s selection would probably give Jong Un a strong hand to play in controlling the country. “Kim Jong Il picked the apple that didn’t fall far from the tree. He didn’t select a successor who he believed would radically depart from his vision for North Korea,” said one U.S. intelligence official.
In 2009, Jong Il designated his son to be his successor. That year North Korea tested a nuclear weapon for the second time.
Western intelligence agencies know little about Jong Un. He has spent most of his life out of the public eye in North Korea, except two years he spent in a boarding school in Switzerland.
His “mannerisms, personality” are very similar to those exhibited by his father, especially since he was named successor, a U.S. official said.
North Korea launched its first successful nuclear test in 2006, after ordering United Nations inspectors out of the country in 2003. The nation had been pursuing the program since the 1950s.
“The scary thing is that we know that some day the regime is going to collapse, but we won’t know that day is coming until it gets here,” said James Carafano, senior defense analyst with The Heritage Foundation think tank. “That is the way it is with these closed regimes. We don’t even know if this transition is bringing that day closer or pushing it off.”
But South Korea is building up its arsenal. In December, Congress approved the export of 150 bunker buster bombs to be delivered to Seoul by 2013. South Korea is also in the process of purchasing unmanned aerial drones to better monitor its borders.
Jong Il’s death “brings extraordinary change and uncertainty to a country that has seen little change in decades,” said one U.S. official with knowledge of the region. “South Korea’s concern is warranted, frankly, because an insecure North Korea could well be an even more dangerous North Korea,” the official added.
Sara A. Carter is The Washington Examiner’s national security correspondent. She can be reached at [email protected].
