CORAL GABLES, Florida — Political punditry cognoscenti let out a collective gasp when, a month out from Election Day 2024, a top-tier polling outfit showed Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump set to win Florida by 13 points. Sure, Florida had long ago shed its swing-state status, social media posts and cable television comments declared. But Democrats no doubt would keep their Sunshine State loss limited to a respectable margin in a presidential contest that could go either way.

“I’m skeptical Trump is leading by 13 points in Florida (which he won by only 3.5 points in 2020),” journalist James Surowiecki wrote on X, about the New York Times/Siena survey, hours after its Oct. 8, 2024, publication. The dismissive take by Surowiecki, a contributor to the Atlantic and a former New Yorker staff writer, was typical of the genre.