It seems clear that House Democrats would need to net at least three seats in the 2026 midterm elections to win a majority in the chamber, which would provide a toehold of power during President Donald Trump‘s final two years in office. If only the math were that simple.

House Republicans hold 220 of the chamber’s 435 seats. When three vacancies are filled in heavily blue-leaning districts, Democrats will hold 215 seats. Arizona, Texas, and Virginia will hold special elections by November to replace deceased Democratic lawmakers.