Even the most bullish Clinton pollsters and analysts are agreeing that Donald Trump is surging, and it’s partly due to millennials refusal to support the Democratic nominee.
Larry Sabato from the University of Virginia’s Center of Politics, who is generally of the opinion that Trump is going to lose in a landslide, is suddenly having a change of heart. States like Georgia and Arizona are no longer considered in play, Ohio and Iowa are likely to go red, North Carolina, Nevada, and Florida are tossups, and Clinton is struggling to hold onto once-likely blue states like New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Colorado, Michigan, Virginia, and Wisconsin.
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While Sabato still insists that Clinton is favored to win the election, Trump’s path to 270 electoral college votes exists and is growing. The billionaire now only needs to win the three swing states and any single lean Democratic state.
Here’s the current map from Sabato’s Crystal Ball:
The reason for Clinton’s fall from grace is summed up in one word: millennials.
They’re just not that into her and it’s showing. Young voters are choosing third-party candidates over Clinton. She has been unable to gain the same level of support that Obama had in the 2008 and 2012 elections.
“The third-party candidates aren’t helping Clinton either,” Sabato wrote in his newsletter. “Put together, Libertarian Gary Johnson and Green Jill Stein seem to be hurting Clinton more than Trump, particularly among the youngest voters — voters who have little use for Trump but also are hardly inspired by Clinton. Politico’s Steve Shepard found that one survey, from Fox News, showed about a quarter of voters under 35 backing Johnson or Stein. Another, from Quinnipiac, pegged third-party support amongst millennials at an eye-popping 44%.”
Red Alert Politics called this phenomenon of millennials dumping Clinton long before the pollsters, and her new attempts at winning Generation Y leave a lot to be desired.
