As the Republican presidential primary race grinds on, Wisconsin is the next important stop. A recent NBC News/Marist poll found that that Badger State voters are more focused on the sure-to-be-fiercely fought recall of Republican Gov. Scott Walker, than on Tuesday’s presidential primary. The recall primary is in May and the general election will be held in June.
But there’s yet another Wisconsin contest this year that is quietly heating up behind the scenes that could also garner national attention come November.
Last spring, Wisconsin Democratic Sen. Herb Kohl announced that he would not be seeking reelection in 2012, leaving his Senate seat vulnerable to a Republican pick up in a swing state. U.S. Rep. Tammy Baldwin of Madison – a liberal stronghold – has emerged as the likely Democratic nominee.
Since then, six candidates have joined the Wisconsin Republican Senate primary race in hopes of winning their party’s nomination on August 14th and defeating Baldwin in the general election on November 6th.
Former Governor and HHS Secretary Tommy Thompson jumped out to an early and substantial lead over his fellow candidates with 39 percent of likely GOP primary voters supporting him, leaving fmr. U.S. Rep. Mark Neumann – and ‘98 GOP U.S. Senate nominee – and Assembly Speaker Jeff Fitzgerald far behind with 22 percent each.
But recent polls have shown the race is tightening, with Neumann emerging as the conservative alternative to Thompson, nabbing key endorsements from Republican Sens. Jim DeMint (S.C.) and Rand Paul (Ky.), and the Club for Growth. Neuman can also point to tea party favorite Ron Johnson‘s successful bid against Democratic incumbent Senator Russ Feingold in 2010 as model for how a more conservative candidate can win in Wisconsin.
Another sign of encouragement for two of Thompson’s primary competitors is a poll showing Neumann and Fitzgerald also defeating Tammy Baldwin in the general election.
While Kohl’s seat appears ripe for a GOP pick-up, Baldwin has pointed to a recent poll by Public Policy Polling showing her in a near toss-up with Thompson, and more comfortably ahead of Neumann and Fitzgerald..
What is clear about the upcoming Republican Senate primary race in Wisconsin is that the eventual nominee will face a tough fall election in a state that will be key for Democrats in both the presidential and congressional elections, and racing an electorate that may be the most polarized in the county after a bitterly-contested summer recall contest.
