It is widely assumed that climate policy has receded — that political change has curtailed the influence of climate models. But this misunderstands how modern government works. The most important changes occurred within the administrative state, not through legislation or international agreements.
Over the past decade, climate models have become embedded throughout government, shaping regulatory analysis, infrastructure planning, financial supervision, and international commitments. Once analytical frameworks become incorporated into agency procedures, they rarely disappear. Administrations may alter priorities or suspend initiatives, but they seldom dismantle the underlying machinery. What appears to be a retreat in climate policy is often only a change in emphasis. The framework remains in place, ready to expand under different political leadership.
