This week, a new Reuters/Ipsos poll has President Donald Trump’s approval rating at an abysmal 33%, a new low in his presidency. Trump started his second term with a 91% approval rating among Republicans, but that support has dwindled to 79%. While that number looks high on paper, it is significantly lower than the average in our current age of extreme political polarization. Trump averaged an 87.6% approval rating among Republicans during his first term, and Joe Biden enjoyed 85% approval among Democrats during his less-than-stellar four years in office.
According to Reuters, the percentage of Republicans who “strongly support” Trump’s performance has dropped from 68% to 48%.
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Trump’s drop in popularity varies among demographics, but cracks in the armor are appearing on multiple fronts. Cross-tabs from recent ActiVote and YouGov polls show that moderate Republicans are more likely to withdraw their support from the president.
Seventy percent fear that the conflict in Iran could become a prolonged “endless war.” Meanwhile, support for the president among suburban women and independents has plummeted due to economic anxiety and persistent inflation, and foreign policy concerns.
There is also a significant generational gap. Young conservatives (under 45) and libertarian men drawn to the noninterventionist populist posture of Trump’s 2024 campaign are more likely to waver in their support of the president than older Republicans.
Young conservatives’ support has dropped by double digits. A poll by the Financial Times revealed that 53% of voters overall and 24% of Trump voters say their economic condition has worsened during Trump’s presidency.
For the last decade, Trump has relished his role as kingmaker in Republican politics. His endorsements were nearly bulletproof and often elevated inferior candidates such as Herschel Walker and Dr. Mehmet Oz over more electable (and often more conservative) options. When he prematurely endorsed Vivek Ramaswamy for Ohio governor, the Ohio Republican Party all but canceled the gubernatorial primary to lay out the red carpet for the president’s preferred candidate.
Trump’s endorsements appear to be losing their luster in this year’s primary cycle. Trump-aligned Rep. Andy Ogles (R-TN) lost his primary to state Agriculture Commissioner Charlie Hatcher despite the president’s endorsement. Gov. Bill Lee (R-TN) endorsed Hatcher. MyPillow CEO and conspiracy theorist Mike Lindell was blown out in the Republican primary for Minnesota governor despite Trump’s endorsement. Sen. Darline Graham Nordone (R-SC), sister and successor of the late Trump ally Lindsey Graham, who received Trump’s endorsement, is in no way a lock in South Carolina as she faces a stiff challenge from conservative Rep. Ralph Norman.
A president operating with a partisan approval rating under 80% and with overall approval sitting in the mid-30s creates hazardous waters for Republicans on the ballot in November. Trump’s numbers on the economy are near-historically bad, with under 30% of voters approving of his handling of inflation, the issue that sank Biden’s presidency.
GOP candidates can’t point to a thriving economy or inflation rates that have improved dramatically, nor can they point to a newfound era of safety and security abroad. The president is mired in corruption allegations surrounding his crypto pump-and-dump scheme and the preposterous decision to charge exorbitant amounts of cash for early access to his Truth Social posts.
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“It’s none of your business,” Trump said when asked how his 20-year-old son Barron Trump’s net worth increased by $150 million in the last year.
Democrats have their own problems, communism and Islamism chief among them. RealClearPolitics has the GOP down around 7 points on the generic congressional ballot; not ideal, but not insurmountable with two and a half months left before the midterm elections. Trump and Republicans could certainly turn the tide, but time is running out.
Brady Leonard (@bradyleonard) is a writer, musician, and host of The No Gimmicks Podcast.