Some are comparing the coming elections to the 2006 midterm elections. Then, Democrats rode to victory due to an unpopular war in the Middle East and an unpopular Republican president. It is believed they will again 20 years later, thanks to the Iran war, despite our allegedly winning it over 60 times.
With a divisive war abroad, economic trouble, and an unpopular president, it’s easy to see why 2026 is expected to be a blowout win for the Democrats and a replay of 2006.
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But the better analogy appears to be the 2022 midterm elections.
In 2022, polls widely predicted a Republican wave. The GOP won significant victories, particularly retaking the House of Representatives, but fell far short of what was expected of them. Voters generally stuck with the devils they knew. Today, with both parties radicalizing, the possibility of such large-scale shifts diminishes. Democrats now “vote blue no matter who” and Republicans are adopting a similar mindset. Polarization today is far worse than in 2006. We now contend with the high-octane division of the 2020s.
Another issue to look at is the state of polling itself. Ever since the 2016 election, poll overestimation IS expected. In 2022, they overestimated Republicans, but every other election overestimated Democrats. Right now, the polls would have us believe that Texas is going to vote blue. Granted, the Republican Senate nominee, Ken Paxton, is a walking scandal. But in times like this, it’s hard to believe that Texans will vote for someone as contrary to their values as Democratic nominee James Talarico. This sounds like polls overestimating Democrats.
In 2022, polls were forecasting widespread Republican victories that simply did not happen. Why the red wave didn’t materialize has been attributed to candidate quality. From Kari Lake to Doug Mastriano to Mehmet Oz, Republican nominees in 2022 were the very kinds of people Democrats paint all Republicans as being: conspiracy theorists, religious fanatics, and quacks. Your average voter doesn’t want to vote for that, so it was no surprise that many stuck with the devil they knew.
Now, for 2026, Democrats are enjoying the expectation of a blue wave, but they’ve committed the same blunder that Republicans did four years ago. From Talarico to Abdul el Sayed to Darializa Avila Chevalier, Democrat nominees are embodying the caricature Republicans make of all Democrats: woke-obsessed, socialist, and America-hating. Your average voter doesn’t want to vote for this either. It will be no surprise if they decide that MAGA isn’t that bad after all. Bad candidate quality gave Republicans a victory in 2024. It can do so again.
TRUMP GOT A SECOND CHANCE. HE’S BLOWING IT
All this to say: Republicans will take some significant losses this cycle. The incumbent party is usually expected to. However, it will not be the blue wave polls currently predict. The Democrats have made the same mistake the GOP once made. Even if they hadn’t, the partisan slop machines in the media have done too good a job of vilifying the other side for large swings like that to be realistic.