In the recent municipal election, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s ruling Justice and Development Party lost to its opposition in two major cities, Istanbul and Ankara. Istanbul is the economic powerhouse of Turkey, and its loss is a major blow to Erdoğan, who during his campaign repeatedly said “whoever wins Istanbul, wins Turkey.”
Before the election, there was almost a consensus that Turkey is an authoritarian regime, and the discussion was over which type of authoritarian regime it was. But after the election, a mood of optimism has taken hold both at home and abroad. Opponents of Erdoğan started to believe that they can really change things. And some observers in the West celebrated the victory of the opposition as a proof that Turkey is still a democracy.
But the fact that you need a proof to call a country “a democracy” may very well be considered as an indicator that it is not.
Does the recent election represent the beginning of Turkey’s normalization and return to democracy? This can only be answered by Erdoğan himself. Although the opposition won Istanbul, everyone in Turkey, including the opposition, waits to see if Erdoğan will ultimately accept the result or not. The electoral blow left Erdoğan at a crossroad between accepting it and becoming even more authoritarian.
It is not an easy choice for Erdoğan. In both cases the stakes are very high. If he accepts the result, his legitimacy abroad will increase substantially. He can try convincing foreign investors that Turkish democracy is still functioning and get some foreign investment to overcome the deepening economic crisis. And he can negotiate the foreign policy issues as a legitimate leader who has popular support.
But it is very dangerous for leaders like Erdoğan to be perceived as weak or as becoming weak. Erdoğan rules Turkey with an iron fist and leaves little room for opposition. By accepting that he can be defeated, Erdoğan would unleash the whole energy of the oppressed opposition. He is aware that if he lets a small breach of real opposition, then people will attack with all their power to widen that breach.
Turkey is on the brink of an economic collapse, and in such an atmosphere, the toleration of opposition can lead to a rapid decrease in popular support. It could make it impossible for Erdoğan to tighten his grip on power again. The image of a wounded Erdoğan has already began to embolden his rivals and the dissidents in his own party. Just after the election, rumors began spreading that the former Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu will form a new party. Historically, almost every economic crisis in Turkey forced the government to call snap elections. Although Erdoğan can wait up to four years before holding another election, the economic turmoil may raise demands for an earlier vote.
Erdoğan is a gifted politician, and a very pragmatic one who would not hesitate to align himself with his previous enemies. But this time he has oppressed his opponents too much, narrowing his own room for political maneuver. At this point, it will not be easy for Erdoğan to win over the support of the Kurds or other opposition groups, even if he tries to meet some of their demands.
If Erdoğan chooses the other path and becomes more authoritarian, if he increases his suppression of the opposition, that would lead to the evaporation of his legitimacy. The economy would totally collapse, and it would be very hard to find any finance from abroad to remedy the disaster. Turkey can face the danger of becoming a new Venezuela if it cannot finance its current account deficit. In such a case, Erdoğan will inevitably adopt a more nationalist and discriminatory discourse to keep his base solidified. That will, in turn, only worsen the situation.
His already strained relations with the United States over Turkey’s purchase of S-400 missiles, or with the European Union over human rights violations, will become much worse. The risk of a permanent break off from the West will loom. Losing the support of the West will force Erdoğan to get closer to authoritarian regimes like Russia and China.
The opposition’s motto during the rallies was “Spring will come.” As happens with the coming of spring, a new hope is burgeoning in Turkey. But the results of this election will not be enough to steer Turkey towards democracy. Erdoğan is still at the helm of the country and his choice will determine the direction of Turkey.
Muhammed Bahadır Gülle is a former Turkish diplomat and currently a visiting scholar at the University of Cologne.
