The unknown of NFL free agency

Published March 3, 2010 5:00am ET



Free agency used to be easy to predict. When this period began, certain teams (the Redskins) would pay big money and numerous players would change teams.

It’s dwindled a little over time — teams learned to re-sign their top players rather than overpaying for other guys. Well, most teams learned.

It’s a little different this season. It’s hard to know how teams will spend knowing there could be a lockout in 2011 and with an uncapped year.

It’s hard to know whether or not there will be more trades this year than in the past. With more than 200 players going from unrestricted to restricted in an uncapped year, the only way they could leave is through a trade.

However, keep in mind that many teams will still look to keep costs down in case of a lockout. That means loading up on draft picks (read: cheaper players).

And maybe the biggest question is: What will happen to Carolina defensive end Julius Peppers?

The Redskins could be a landing spot, though New England, Chicago and Philadelphia all reportedly are interested. The Bears will be interesting to watch with a front office and coaching staff likely needing to win to keep their jobs.

If Peppers wants to go where he has the best chance of winning next year, it won’t be here. Is he worth $20 million a year? Is any player, outside of a quarterback? No. But these are different times. As for the motivation factor, Panther insiders say that Peppers always worked out hard in the offseason (just not at their facility). And only Dwight Freeney and Jason Taylor have more sacks than Peppers since 2002. Still, there are too many questions surrounding him for that kind of dough. He’s not a leader, which describes some other big-money guys already on the Redskins’ roster.

Also, can Peppers play linebacker in a 3-4? That’s what he’d have to do in Washington (most likely) or New England. He’s more fluid and athletic than, say, Andre Carter, who will be asked to move from end to outside linebacker with the Redskins. But this is a major unknown. Just like the free agency period that’s about to begin.