I was recently a guest on an out-of-town sports talk show and was asked by the host just how good Nick Markakis is going to be. It?s a bit like being asked to pick a surefire stock on Wall Street. You look at past history and guess. In Markakis? case, the indicators seem to be pointing up.
Let?s be honest: Here?s a young man ? still just 22 ? who arrived in the major leagues with fewer than 300 games worth of minor league experience and only 33 games in Double-A. The numbers were good, but nothing that really knocked your eye out. Good average, some power, some speed, could have probably cut down on his strikeouts a little, but sure, he looked like a prospect.
When spring training started this year in Fort Lauderdale, Fla., the back-room skinny was that Markakis would be on the big league club if he showed anything at all in Grapefruit League play. Every scout I spoke to ? mainly outside the organization ? felt he?d benefit from a little more time in the minors, but on Opening Day, there he was, wearing No. 21, somewhat more appropriate than the 61 he had in Florida.
Despite a slow start that might have discouraged him, he stayed with the big club, and injuries ? first to David Newhan and then Jay Gibbons ? increased his role with the team. Now, headed into the season?s final month, Markakis has an everyday position to call his own and a real shot at batting .300 his rookie season.
The question remains, though, how good can he be?
If he?s never any better than what he is now ? projectinghis stats over 162 games shows a solid-if-unspectacular .300 hitter with 10 to 12 home runs and 65 to 70 RBI ? that?s certainly acceptable. However, given his work ethic, it?s safe to say the run production numbers will increase, the strikeouts will diminish and he may take a few more risks on the bases. At this point in his career, I doubt he has started writing his Hall of Fame induction speech, but, inasmuch as this organization has produced so little in the way of serviceable everyday players for the past couple of decades, the Markakis story is a major positive.
Several scouts I?ve spoken with have told me that, despite his success this year, they believe he would have made a better pitcher than outfielder. Markakis pitched in junior college, where he never lost a game and led all JuCo hurlers in strikeouts. It?s a skill the Orioles may never take advantage of, but it?s certainly something to ponder on those odd days when you fall behind by a dozen runs early and don?t want to waste an arm out of the bullpen.
Markakis is a longshot to win the AL Rookie of the Year Award, especially with Tigers? pitcher Justin Verlander likely going to the postseason and Twins? lefty Francisco Liriano doing so well prior to going on the DL. But with the Orioles headed for another sub-.500 finish, Markakis? performance gives fans at least one reason to be optimistic about the future.
Phil Wood has covered sports in the Washington-Baltimore market for more than 30 years.
