Where » Philips Arena, Atlanta

TV » CBS

Key matchup » Perry Jones III (Baylor) vs. Kenny Frease (Xavier). The insanely gifted 6-foot-11 Jones (13.4 ppg, 7.7 rpg) has scored just nine points in the tournament. He will have a huge quickness edge on the 7-foot, 275-pound Frease (9.9 ppg, 6.2 rpg), who dominated Lehigh (25 points, 12 rebounds) on Sunday. Jones is due for a break out.

How Baylor can win » Get fired up. It’s hard to call a 29-7 team underachieving, but the supremely talented Bears fit the description. They’ve appeared disinterested much of the season, following the lead of the deferential Jones. Some teams are able to flick the switch when the games matter most. This is the time.

How Xavier can win » Control tempo. The Musketeers can’t match the open-floor dynamics of the long, athletic Bears. But with Tu Holloway and Mark Lyons, they have the toughness and confidence in the backcourt to control games and a low-post player in Frease who can be a weapon in a halfcourt, bunker-warfare game.

Player to watch » Tu Holloway (Xavier). It’s nice to have a senior guard to run the show in the tournament, especially when he has been to the Sweet 16 twice. Holloway (17.4 ppg, 4.9 apg) will have an edge on Baylor’s pesky junior Pierre Jackson (13.5 ppg, 5.8 apg), who has committed more turnovers (127) than any player in the Sweet 16.

X-factor » Brady Heslip (Baylor). Where would the Bears be without the sophomore who has made 14 of 22 3-pointers in the tournament? This is no fluke. Heslip shoots 45.6 percent from beyond the arc and 93.8 percent from the free throw line. Xavier defends the perimeter well, however. Foes have hit only 30.5 percent of their 3s.

Examiner predicts » Xavier 67-64

Midwest Region

No. 1 North Carolina (31-5) vs. No. 13 Ohio (29-7)

When » Friday, 7:47 p.m.

Where » Edward Jones Dome, St. Louis

TV » TBS

Key matchup » Kendall Marshall/Stilman White (UNC) vs. D.J. Cooper (Ohio). With an uncertain situation at point guard after Marshall broke his right wrist, this is a potentially crippling matchup for UNC. Cooper (14.9 ppg, 5.7 apg) should have a major edge. If reserve White plays, it becomes overwhelming.

How UNC can win » Run. Regardless of Marshall’s status, the Tar Heels will be served best by getting into transition. Harrison Barnes and Reggie Bullock are dangerous finishers who have no athletic equals on Ohio. Running will prevent Ohio from setting up its defense, which ranks in the top five in the nation in steals and turnovers forced.

How Ohio can win » Make it a game of guards vs. guards. Ohio doesn’t rotate a player taller than 6-foot-8, putting the Bobcats at a disadvantage inside against 7-foot Tyler Zeller (16.4 ppg, 9.4 rpg) and 6-11 John Henson (13.8 ppg, 10.1 rpg). If the Bobcats can shorten the game with long possessions, it will increase their chances.

Player to watch » Harrison Barnes (UNC). The 6-8 sophomore is the Tar Heels’ top scorer (17.3 ppg) and will be the most talented player on the floor. After limping through much of the season on a sprained ankle, Barnes is running free and easy. With Marshall’s status uncertain, this is the time for Barnes to become more assertive.

X-factor » Shooting. UNC will have a huge edge on the boards, but the equalizer could be 3s. Nick Kellogg hit a pair each in Ohio’s two NCAA tournament wins and is a career 42.5 percent shooter from deep. Ohio State transfer Walter Offutt is dangerous as well. The junior hit all four of his 3-point attempts against South Florida.

Examiner predicts » North Carolina 73-68

South Region

No. 1 Kentucky (34-2) vs. No. 4 Indiana (27-8)

When » Friday, 9:45 p.m.

Where » Philips Arena, Atlanta

TV » CBS

Key matchup » Terrence Jones (Kentucky) vs. Christian Watford (Indiana). In the first meeting of the teams, a 73-72 Indiana win in Bloomington, Ind., Watford scored 20 points and hit the game-winning 3-pointer at the buzzer while Jones (four points, one rebound) was a no show. Don’t expect it to be as one-sided this time.

How Kentucky can win » Guard the perimeter. In the first game, Kentucky was done in by Indiana’s 3-point shooting (nine of 15). With the nation’s leading shot blocker, Anthony Davis (4.6 bpg), inside, the Wildcats can afford to get up on the Hoosiers’ shooters, especially with Indiana’s best ball-handler, Verdell Jones III (torn ACL), long gone.

How Indiana can win » Guard the lane. Indiana won the first game despite being outscored 50-24 in the paint. If that continues, the Hoosiers likely will be on the wrong side of a double-digit defeat. Most of the points came from perimeter players slashing to the basket, including Doron Lamb (19 points) and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (18 points).

Player to watch » Anthony Davis (Kentucky). In the first meeting, the Hoosiers got Davis in foul trouble. In 24 minutes, the 6-10 freshman was limited to six points, nine rebounds and three blocks. Indiana got five of its 3s when Davis was off the floor. He learned his lesson. Davis hasn’t had more than three fouls in a game since.

X-factor » This game is loaded with intrigue. It involves two programs in which basketball matters most and that have won a combined 12 national titles. Indiana handed Kentucky its lone regular-season loss. And the lone missing piece on the resume of Wildcats coach John Calipari is a national championship.

Examiner predicts » Kentucky 82-67

Midwest Region

No. 2 Kansas (29-6) vs. No. 11 N.C. State (24-12)

When » Friday, 10:17 p.m.

Where » Edward Jones Dome, St. Louis

TV » TBS

Key matchup » Tyshawn Taylor (Kansas) vs. Lorenzo Brown (N.C. State). The 6-foot-3 Taylor (16.9 ppg, 4.7 apg) is the more explosive scorer but is prone to turnovers. He committed 11 in a loss to Duke. The 6-5 Brown (12.8 ppg, 6.4 apg) has developed into a solid distributor on the only Sweet 16 team that has five double-digit scorers.

How Kansas can win » Hound Scott Wood. The Jayhawks struggle defending the arc. Opponents are shooting 34.5 percent, ranking Kansas 185th. Purdue’s Robbie Hummel exposed the weakness before Kansas slowed him with a triangle and two. N.C. State’s deep threat is Wood, who shoots 41.7 percent.

How N.C. State can win » Clog the lane. The strength of Kansas is inside. The Jayhawks were OK from outside during the season but have struggled from beyond the arc, hitting 11 of 40 (27.5 percent) in the tournament even though teams have collapsed on forward Thomas Robinson and there have been open looks available.

Player to watch » Thomas Robinson (Kansas). The 6-9 junior averages 17.7 points a game and 11.8 rebounds, second most in the nation. Facing the double- and triple-teams of Purdue, Robinson had his worst game of the season, going 2-for-12, and the Jayhawks’ inability to adjust nearly cost them the game.

X-factor » C.J. Leslie (N.C. State). There has never been any doubt about the talent of the 6-8 sophomore. In the postseason, he finally has put it together, averaging 16.2 points and 9.0 rebounds and hitting 61.1 percent of his shots. He has the quickness and leaping ability to deal with Robinson one-on-one.

Examiner predicts » Kansas 77-72

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