A BLINDING FLASH OF THE OBVIOUS: The “Afghanistan Papers” released by the Washington Post reveal a truth that any journalist covering America’s longest war has known for a long time — that while civilian and military leaders have publicly professed confidence that steady progress was being made, privately many, if not most harbored deep doubts about the efficacy of the strategy in Afghanistan.
The cache of more than 2,000 pages notes of interviews from some 400 Pentagon leaders, generals, diplomats, aid workers and Afghan officials — which the Post obtained through the Freedom of Information Act after a three-year legal battle — are being portrayed as a “secret history of the war” in Afghanistan, a nod to the leaked 1971 Pentagon Papers that revealed similar truths about the Vietnam War.
‘TURNED THE CORNER’: As someone who has covered the war, from the beginning — albeit largely from the Pentagon, not the front lines — I remember wrestling with how to report the ceaselessly upbeat pronouncements from a succession of American Afghanistan commanders. I knew that generals could not publically admit things were not going well, nor express any weakness in the U.S. position lest they erode support for the war effort and embolden the enemy.
The disconnect between the rosy briefings given by U.S. commanders and the ugly truth on the ground was on full display in a November 2017 Pentagon briefing, in which U.S. Afghanistan commander Gen. John Nicholson told reporters he believed that U.S. and Afghan forces had “turned the corner” against the Taliban, a phrase with eerie echoes the the Vietnam-era “light at the end of the tunnel.”
The phrase was savagely mocked on the parody site DuffelBlog in a way that only satire can get to larger truths. “Nicholson,” the fake story said, “told reporters, that ‘we are on our way to a win’ in Afghanistan, echoing a similar point made by Gen. David Petraeus in 2010, Gen. John Allen in 2013, and Gen. John Campbell in 2014.”
TRUMP’S GUT TOLD HIM TO GET OUT: President Trump ordered a full review of Afghanistan policy shortly after taking office, with an eye toward ending U.S. involvement, but he admitted he was convinced against his gut by his advisers — all gone now — to continue the war effort. “My original instinct was to pull out, Trump said in an Aug. 21, 2017 speech announcing his new strategy, “and, historically, I like following my instincts.”
SUNK COST FALLACY: Trump was up against what’s known as the “sunk cost fallacy” sometimes known as “throwing good money after bad.” When thousands of Americans have given their lives for a cause, no one wants to declare it lost. While the only real debate should be over the cost versus benefit of going forward, the sacrifices of the past make it difficult to make unemotional decisions.
WHO WILL SAY THIS WAS IN VAIN? Trump’s dilemma is vividly illustrated in a newly-published book, Trump and His Generals: The Cost of Chaos, by CNN analyst Peter Bergen, in which Bergen describes a 2017 meeting attended by retired Marine Gen. John Kelly, who lost a son in Afghanistan.
Trump reportedly said, “We got our boys who are over there being blown up every day for what? For nothing. Guys are dying for nothing. There’s nothing worth dying for in that country.” The anecdote is offered up as an example of Trump’s “astonishing display of insensitivity,” while the generals are portrayed as guiding the president to “sensible decisions.”
But the interviews — many done by John Sopko, the Pentagon’s Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction for a series of Lessons Learned reports — show that many officials over the years shared Trump’s judgment that Afghanistan was a lost cause.
“If the American people knew the magnitude of this dysfunction . . . 2,400 lives lost,” said retired Lt. Gen. Douglas Lute, who served as the White House’s Afghan war czar during the Bush and Obama administrations in one document. “Who will say this was in vain?”
TRILLIONS SPENT: At a rally in Florida last month Trump railed against previous administrations who he said “used the great American middle class as a piggy bank to fund their delusional global projects,” and accused past leaders of transforming “faraway nations into blood-soaked war zones.”
“We spent $8 trillion in the Middle East and when we want to fix a road or a highway or a school, it’s not easy to get the money,” Trump said. “We are finally putting America first.”
“What did we get for this $1 trillion effort? Was it worth $1 trillion?” Jeffrey Eggers, a retired Navy SEAL is quoted in another document. “After the killing of Osama bin Laden, I said that Osama was probably laughing in his watery grave considering how much we have spent on Afghanistan.”
Good Tuesday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited by Susan Katz Keating (@SKatzKeating). Email here with tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. Sign up or read current and back issues at DailyonDefense.com. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter: @dailyondefense.
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HAPPENING TODAY: Undersecretary of Defense Ellen Lord conducts on on-camera briefing at 8 a.m. to provide an update on significant acquisition issues. streamed live on http://www.defense.gov/Watch/Live-Events
ALSO TODAY: President Trump is scheduled to meet Russian Foriegn Minister Sergey Lavrov in the Oval Office. It is expected that among other things the two will discuss President Valdimir Putin’s offer to extend the New START treaty for five years without preconditions, as provided for in the treaty which expires in February of 2021.
REACTION TO THE AFGHANISTAN PAPERS: Retired Gen. David Petraeus, who was U.S. Afghanistan commander from July 2010 to July 2011, vigorously defended his conduct of the war effort and insisted he never lied or sugar-coated the truth.
“I stand by the assessments I provided as the commander in Afghanistan and believe the security gains, while very hard fought and fragile, were indisputable,” Petraeus said in an email to the Washington Examiner. “We clearly reversed the momentum on the battlefield of the Taliban, who had been steadily taking districts from our forces and the Afghans for several years prior to 2010.”
A LOT OF ‘I TOLD YOU SOs’: When we reached out to various national security experts for reaction to the trove of documents published by the Post there was very little pushback against the premise that the U.S. has lacked a winning strategy in Afghanistan for years.
Here’s a sample:
“There is a dirty little secret that anyone who has studied the invasion and subsequent nearly two-decade war in Afghanistan understands all too well: After spending trillions of dollars the U.S. in not any safer. Trump is indeed correct, Washington should depart that war-torn country today. However, his generals I am sure whisper into his ear warnings that if a terror attack does come once again from Afghanistan after a pullout does he want to be the president known for letting it happen? Does he want to have blood on his hands? Such warped logic can only mean we won’t be leaving any time soon — to our own detriment.” Harry Kazianis, Center for the National Interest
“The Post’s Afghanistan papers illustrate two phenomenon discussed in a recent CSIS paper, Tell Me How This Ends. First, the United States expanded its war aims from a limited focus on counterterrorism to a broad nation-building effort without discussion about the implications for the duration and intensity of the military campaign. This expansion occurred without considering the history of Afghanistan, the Soviet experience, and the decades-long effort required in successful nation-building efforts. Second, every commander claimed to see progress but wanted more troops and more time.” Mark Cancian, Center for Strategic and International Studies.
“Trump was right from day one that Afghanistan is not fixable. George W. Bush made a fatal mistake when he sought to transform a counter-terror campaign there into a nation-building exercise. Some places simply are not fertile ground for democracy, and Bush’s team didn’t understand Afghanistan any better than they understood Iraq. There’s a reason why Osama bin Laden picked Afghanistan as his sanctuary in the years leading up to 9-11. Trump is the first president to say out loud what everybody should have learned by now: the longer we stay, the more lives and money we waste.” Loren Thompson, The Lexington Institute.
“Why has it taken so long to recognize the failure at the strategic level of the national security policies followed in both Iraq and Afghanistan? It is because of the failure to distinguish between national security goals that are vital and ones that may be desirable … After the early employment of force in both Iraq and Afghanistan to achieve critical national security objectives, mission-creep … captured Pentagon leadership. This led to committing resources to what had then become contingencies of choice rather than of necessity.” Retired Gen. David Deptula, director of the Combined Air Operations Center at the beginning of the Afghanistan war in 2001.
“The challenge raised by the problems that have surfaced in the Afghanistan papers is that they have emerged in very similar ways in our dealings with Iraq, and in our failure to deal with Libya, Syria, and Yemen. We also have a long list of other ‘failed states’ we may have to deal with in the future. Put bluntly, we live in a world where we have to learn from our mistakes, not simply run away from them.” Anthony Cordesman, Center for Strategic and International Studies.
DANIEL ELLSBURG’S TAKE: The Washington Post is making a deliberate effort to frame the documents it obtained legally through an expensive FOIA court fight, with the secret history of the Vietnam War smuggled out of the Pentagon in the early 1970s by RAND analyst Daniel Ellsberg.
In an interview with CNN’s Brian Stelter, Ellsberg says he does believe the two cases are analogous. In both wars, he said “the presidents and the generals had a pretty realistic view of what they were up against, which they did not want to admit to the American people.”
Ellsberg told Stelter he’s glad that so many officials involved in the Afghan war spoke frankly to the Pentagon’s watchdog, and questioned why they were not as forthright in public: “Ask yourself, would it have made a difference if we had those statements 10 years ago? Five years ago?” Ellsberg said.
$738 BILLION NDAA READY FOR VOTE: House and Senate conferees have agreed on the final version of the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2020, which authorizes funding for both the Department of Defense and the national security programs of the Department of Energy.
“This conference report supports a discretionary topline of $738 billion, consistent with the recent bipartisan budget agreement. This includes $71.5 billion for Overseas Contingency Operations funding. In addition, the report authorizes $5.3 billion in emergency disaster recovery to help military installations across the country from extreme weather and natural disasters,” said a joint statement from leaders of the House and Senate Armed Services Committee.
“This conference report is the product of months of hard-fought, but always civil and ultimately productive, negotiations,” said the committee chairman and ranking member. “The NDAA remains one of the few authorization bills that Congress passes year after year. That is because both houses of Congress and both parties recognize its importance and work together to support the brave men and women of our Armed Forces.”
The committee summary of the final conference report is available here. Text of the conference report and the joint explanatory statement will be available on rules.house.gov
THUMBNAIL SUMMARY of FY 2020 NDAA:
- DoD Discretionary Base Budget $635 billion
- DoE Discretionary Base Budget $23.1 billion
- Other Non-Defense $300 million
- FY20 Base Budget NDAA Topline $658.4 billion
- Overseas Contingency Operations $71.5 billion
- FY20 Discretionary Topline $729.9 billion
- Defense-Related Activities Outside NDAA Jurisdiction $8.1 billion
- National Defense Topline w/ OCO $738 billion
- Emergency Disaster Recovery $5.3 billion
- Mandatory Spending: The bill also includes $10.6 billion in authorizations
AMONG ITS PROVISIONS:
- includes a 3.1% pay hike for troops
- bars the Pentagon from reducing U.S. troops in South Korea below 28,500
- imposes sanctions related to Russia’s Nord Stream 2 and TurkStream pipelines
- prohibits transfer of Lockheed Martin F-35 stealth fighter jets to Turkey
- bars the use of federal funds to buy rail cars and buses from China
The Rundown
Reuters: U.S. Lawmakers Reach Deal On Massive Defense Bill, Eye Russia, Turkey, China
Washington Examiner: In midst of war, Rumsfeld didn’t know who the ‘bad guys’ were in Afghanistan and Iraq
Washington Examiner: ‘No one’s in charge’: US had no plan to stop drug flow from Afghanistan after invasion, documents show
AP: South Korea Says North’s Recent Test Was Of Rocket Engine
Wall Street Journal: Russia, Ukraine Agree on Cease-Fire in Eastern Ukraine
Reuters: Russia Plans To Set Up Arctic Air Defense ‘Dome’ With S-400 Missiles
Stars and Stripes: AFRICOM Calls For Return Of Drone Downed By Russian Weapon System Over Libya
Washington Examiner: Saudi gunman complained about nickname ‘Porn Stash’ given by Pensacola flight instructor
AP: Pensacola Gunman Got Around A Ban On Gun Purchases By Foreigners
Washington Post: Gunman’s Behavior Changed After Trip To Native Saudi Arabia, Friends Say
Air Force Magazine: USAF’s Space Force ‘War Room’ Ready and Waiting
USNI News: Underway on USS Gerald R. Ford: Navy Marks Progress on Carrier as Scrutiny of Program Grows
Defense News: For The U.S. Navy, It’s ‘All Hands On Deck’ To Fix The Ford
Washington Post: Amazon, Microsoft Executives Call For Big-Tech Alliance With Pentagon
Washington Post: ‘Our Friends Didn’t Have To Die’: Afghanistan Papers Surface Pain And Familiar Frustrations
Calendar
TUESDAY | DECEMBER 10
8 a.m. 2201 G St. N.W. — Defense Writers Group Breakfast with Air Force Gen. Tod Wolters, Supreme NATO Commander and U.S. European Commander. https://nationalsecuritymedia.gwu.edu/
9 a.m. 740 15th St. N.W. — New America discussion on “Coming Home: Dialogues on the Moral, Psychological, and Spiritual Impacts of War,” with retired Army Lt. Col. Bill Edmonds, author of “God is Not Here: A Soldier’s Struggle with Torture, Trauma, and the Moral Injuries of War”; former Maj. Ian Fishback, Ph.D. candidate at the University of Michigan; Jesse Kirkpatrick, research assistant professor at George Mason University; retired Army National Guard Lt. Col. Michael Manning, national security fellow at Tufts University’s Fletcher School; Kate McGraw, deputy chief of the Defense Health Agency’s Psychological Health Center of Excellence; Nancy Sherman, professor of philosophy at Georgetown University; former Special Assistant to the President Drew Trojanowski; David Wood, former Future of War fellow at New America; and Daniel Rothenberg, senior fellow at New America. https://www.newamerica.org
9:15 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. N.W. — Center for Strategic and International Studies and the Defense-Industrial Initiatives Group, “New Generation of Partnership in the U.S.-ROK Alliance Conference.” with Assistant Defense Secretary for Acquisition Kevin Fahey; and Jung-hong Wang, administration manager of the Korea Defense Acquisition Program. http://www.csis.org
12 p.m. 1211 Connecticut Ave. N.W. — Stimson Center discussion on “The New North Korea: Security Implications of North Korea’s Social Changes,” with Zheng Jiyong, director of Fudan University’s Center for Korean Studies; William Overholt, senior research fellow at Harvard University; and Jenny Town, managing editor of the Stimson Center’s 38 North. https://www.stimson.org/content
2 p.m. 2118 Rayburn — House Armed Services Subcommittee on Military Personnel Hearing: “Diversity in Recruiting and Retention: Increasing Diversity in the Military – What the Military Services are Doing,” with Army Lt. Gen. Thomas Seamands, deputy chief of staff, G-1; Vice Adm. John Nowell, chief of naval personnel; Air Force Lt. Gen Brian Kelly, deputy chief of staff for manpower, personnel and services; and Marine Lt. Gen. Michael Rocco, deputy commandant for manpower and reserve affairs. https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings
3:30 p.m. 1030 15th St. N.W. — Atlantic Council discussion on a new report, “A Candle in the Dark: U.S. National Security Strategy for Artificial Intelligence,” with co-author Tate Nurkin, nonresident senior fellow in the CSIS Center for Strategy and Security; and co-author Stephen Rodriguez, nonresident senior fellow in the CSIS Center for Strategy and Security. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event
5 p.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. N.W. — Center for Strategic and International Studies “Schieffer Series” discussion on “The Syria Withdrawal and Next Steps,” with Nancy Youssef, national security correspondent at the Wall Street Journal; Melissa Dalton, director of the CSIS Cooperative Defense Project; Seth Jones, director of the CSIS Transnational Threats Project; Brian Katz, fellow in the CSIS International Security Program; and Bob Schieffer, former host of CBS News’ “Face the Nation” http://www.csis.org
5 p.m. 1776 I St. N.W. —Nuclear Threat Initiative discussion on “The President and Nuclear Weapons: Authorities, Limits, and Process,” with former Energy Secretary Ernest Moniz, co-chair of NTI; former Sen. Sam Nunn, D-Ga., co-chair of NTI; Mary DeRose, professor at Georgetown University Law Center; and Ashley Nicolas, graduate of the Georgetown University Law Center https://www.tfaforms.com
WEDNESDAY | DECEMBER 11
9:15 a.m. 1201 Pennsylvania Ave. N.W. — Hudson Institute discussion on “Iran’s Deadly Repression and the U.S. Response,” with Tony Badran, research fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies; Mariam Memarsadeghi, co-director of Tavaana; Blaise Misztal, fellow at Hudson; and Michael Doran, senior fellow at Hudson. http://www.hudson.org
10 a.m. 2118 Rayburn — House Armed Services Committee hearing: “U.S. Policy in Syria and the Broader Region,” with Defense Secretary Mark Esper and Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Mark Milley. https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings
12:30 p.m. 1777 F St. N.W. — Council on Foreign Relations discussion with Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Amy Klobuchar, D-Minn., on the future of U.S. foreign policy, as part of the Election 2020 Series. Livestream at https://www.cfr.org/event
4 p.m. 1030 15th St. N.W. — Atlantic Council discussion on a new report, “Aviation Cybersecurity: Scoping the Challenges,” with Assistant Air Force Secretary for Acquisition, Technology and Logistics Will Roper; Alan Pellegrini, CEO of Thales North America; Harley Geiger, director of public policy at Rapid7; Sidd Gejji, supervisory information technology specialist in the FAA’s Office of the Chief Information Security Officer; Andreas Meyer, cybersecurity officer for aviation security policy at the International Civil Aviation Organization; Olivia Stella, senior analyst for aviation cybersecurity and the Internet of Things at American Airlines; Matthew Kroenig, deputy director for strategy in the Atlantic Council’s Center for Strategy and Security; and Peter Cooper, senior fellow at the Atlantic Council. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event
THURSDAY | DECEMBER 12
8 a.m. 1700 Richmond Hwy. — Armed Force Communications and Electronics Association Air Force Information Technology Day, with Defense Department CIO Dana Deasy; Air Force Chief Data Officer Eileen Vidrine; Defense Information Systems Agency Military Deputy Maj. Gen. Garret Yee; and Assistant Air Force Deputy Chief of Staff for Cyber Effects Operations Maj. Gen. Kevin Kennedy. https://nova.afceachapters.org/event
9 a.m. 1030 15th St. N.W. — The Atlantic Council discussion “One Year into the United States’ Maximum Pressure Campaign on Iran,” with Knut Dethlefsen, representative to the United States and Canada at Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung; David Jalilvand, CEO of Orient Matters; Azadeh Zamirirad, deputy head of the German Institute for International and Security Affairs’ Middle East and Africa Division; Narges Bajoghli, assistant professor at the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies; Barbara Slavin, director of the Atlantic Council’s Future of Iran Initiative; and former U.S. Ambassador to the European Union Stuart Eizenstat, board director at the Atlantic Council. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org
3 p.m. — Defense One and Nextgov webcast “Securing the Digital Landscape,” with Frank Konieczny, chief information technology officer in the Office of the Secretary of the Air Force; Michael Sorrento, director of the Defense Department’s Defense Manpower Data Center; Jordan Kasper, digital service expert at the Defense Digital Service; and Patrick Turner, technology editor at Defense One. https://www.govexec.com
FRIDAY | DECEMBER 13
9 a.m. 1301 K St. N.W. — Washington Post Live conversation with former Defense Secretary retired Gen. Jim Mattis with Washington Post columnist David Ignatius. https://www.washingtonpost.com/post-live
QUOTE OF THE DAY
“We were devoid of a fundamental understanding of Afghanistan — we didn’t know what we were doing … We didn’t have the foggiest notion of what we were undertaking.”
Retired Lt. Gen. Douglas Lute, who served as the White House’s Afghan war czar during the Bush and Obama administrations, as quoted in documents published by the Washington Post.
