Ethiopian Prime Minister Ahmed Abiy is on a high. In October 2019, the Norwegian Nobel Committee awarded him the Nobel Peace Prize “for his decisive initiative to resolve the border conflict with neighboring Eritrea.” The committee also cited Abiy’s work more broadly — helping restore Djibouti-Eritrea ties, mediate a maritime dispute between Kenya and Somalia, and facilitate the peaceful transition in Sudan.

The Nobel Peace Prize, of course, differs from all Nobel Prizes. Swedish organizations award the Nobel Prizes in literature, economics, and the sciences based on a life’s work. The Norwegian Nobel Committee, on the other hand, awards the peace prize based on aspiration and hope. This has led to a number of awards to individuals and organizations whose legacies did not live up to the Nobel committee’s aspirations. Indeed, it is not certain Abiy’s détente with Eritrea will last, nor that Ethiopia itself will remain stable and unified.