In recent years, China has conducted secret underground nuclear weapons tests while increasing its nuclear warhead stockpiles. The country will possess 1,000 warheads by 2030. The Chinese military is also dramatically expanding and diversifying its ground, air, space (with new satellites and weapons), and submarine-based nuclear assets. This has made China increasingly confident in its ability to survive an adversary’s first strike and launch a counterstrike.

Russia plays a key role here. As the Washington Examiner has previously reported, Russia is sharing its deep expertise in anti-submarine warfare with China, relevant to hunting for American ballistic missile submarines. This technical cooperation has increased across the military technology spectrum. And in return for crucial Chinese economic and indirect military support for its war on Ukraine, Russia has also tolerated China’s systemic espionage. The efficacy of Chinese hackers will very likely have boosted Beijing’s nuclear program.

This isn’t to say that the U.S. should panic. While China is advancing, its submarines remain easier to surveil than their American counterparts. Albeit to a lesser degree, the same is true of nuclear weapons-capable aircraft.

And contrary to inaccurate movies such as A House of Dynamite, the U.S. military retains high redundancy across nuclear concerns of command-and-control, enemy interdiction, and strike operations. In short, the U.S. holds the deterrence advantage over the other nuclear powers, including Russia. President Donald Trump has also repeatedly adopted a more forceful response to foreign nuclear threats than did former Presidents Joe Biden or Barack Obama.

Still, under the ruling Communist Party and its chairman, Xi Jinping, China’s threat is leaping forward. Enduring purges of top Chinese military ranks have afforded Xi extraordinary unilateral control over his armed forces. Chinese nuclear efforts reflect Xi’s ambition to win any future showdown with America. That can’t be allowed to happen.

The defense of Taiwan, Japan, and the Philippines provides the foundation stone for American prosperity and security in the 21st century. If China is able to militarily dominate the Pacific, it will use that control to enforce the political and economic submission of Pacific nations and, eventually, the world. Considering China’s rampant unfair trade activities and disregard for intellectual property as of today, this future world would be one in which Americans were significantly poorer and less free.

In turn, just as the U.S. must bolster its conventional military deterrence in the Pacific, so also must it bolster its nuclear deterrence.

Trump must double down on boosting defense spending to increase nuclear-related capabilities. America needs more submarines at sea, and Washington must also strive hard to ensure the new Columbia-class nuclear ballistic missile submarine is launched on schedule. Boosted nuclear deterrence also means buying more B-21 bombers and investing in the nuclear workforce and associated research and development. And while Trump’s much-vaunted “Golden Dome” missile defense system is likely to turn out to be an expensive boondoggle, there is no question that America suffers a crisis shortage of air defense munitions.

Allies must also step up. One issue needing urgent resolution is the underfunding of European navies and their inefficiency in monitoring Russian submarine activity. This malaise requires the U.S. to continue devoting a significant number of attack submarines to detect and deter Russian forces. But if American submarines are in the North Atlantic Ocean and the Barents Sea, they obviously cannot also be in the Pacific at the same time.

Finally, there’s the diplomatic piece.

After all, Beijing also wants this test to educate Pacific nations into a new understanding. Namely, that there will be escalating costs to pay for joining allied efforts to counter Chinese threats and intimidation. Consider, for example, that this test took place on the very same day that Australia and Fiji signed a new defense cooperation agreement — an agreement that Beijing fiercely opposes. Further underlining Beijing’s desire to hammer home its dissatisfaction, a Chinese monitoring vessel was actually docked in Fiji during the test.

Ironically, China’s aggressive reaction here is likely to do more harm than good to its diplomatic efforts. Hopefully, the blunt, bullying form and timing of this test will fuel common efforts to bolster defenses against China’s threat. Regardless, the test exposes Beijing’s claim to seek only global peaceful coexistence and “win-win cooperation.”

Trump now has an opening. He should call on allies to join in pressuring China to put its warheads where its mouth is and engage in arms control diplomacy. Unfortunately, Xi has refused to engage in any such talks until now.

ANDY BURNHAM’S CHOICE: BOOST DEFENSE SPENDING OR BURY THE SPECIAL RELATIONSHIP

Nevertheless, the U.S.-Soviet experience during the Cold War shows that even deep paranoia and ideological animus can’t always prevent nuclear cooperation. And while arms control treaties must be bound to verification mechanisms — Russia loves to break treaties where it can — they can deliver major dividends. Take the 1991 Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty. It saw massive reductions in deployed nuclear warheads and their delivery systems. It made the world a little safer.

Pushing Xi to follow in those footsteps, Trump should assure him that his brinkmanship will meet only unquestioned U.S. nuclear supremacy.