Just weeks after President Donald Trump signed a ceasefire memorandum that lifted financial sanctions on Iran’s foreign currency reserves, freed up Iranian oil exports, and committed the United States and its partners to a reconstruction framework worth hundreds of billions of dollars, Iran has violated the deal. U.S. Central Command struck more than 80 Iranian targets on Tuesday in response, and Trump has declared the deal “over.” Sanctions are reimposed, and a “risk premium” is creeping back into benchmark oil prices.

The speed of the collapse holds a lesson for policymakers, but more essential for Washington to understand is the flawed energy policy assumption that led us here.