Why?

Part of the problem is standard mid-term woes, especially for a second-term president. Part of the problem is Trump’s ill-considered war in Iran and the subsequent increase in gas prices. Trump family self-enrichment probably pays a role, too.

What does it mean for the GOP?

It likely means a tsunami election in the 2026 midterm elections, with Democrats taking the U.S. House and gaining seats in the U.S. Senate while also winning state-level elections. (For instance, they might gain a governing trifecta in Pennsylvania.) Republicans should also be worried about today’s bad vibes carrying over to 2028.

Through the floor

“Low ceiling, high floor.”

That was the conventional wisdom about Trump throughout his first term and in the beginning of his second term.

The pollster Ipsos made exactly that claim in October, suggesting that while Trump would never be loved by a significant majority of the country, he had a “floor” that was just higher than 40%. Bad events (such as the government shutdown) didn’t seem to drive down his approval ratings, Ipsos noted. At that point, about 44% of the country approved of his job performance, and since his 100-day honeymoon period ended, that number hadn’t wandered more than a point from 45%.

This year, though, Trump has fallen through the presumed floor.

The RealClearPolitics average of Trump approval polls puts him at 39.8% (with a disapproval of 58.1%).

Pollster Nate Silver puts Trump’s approval at negative 19.1 percentage points. “About 48 percent of Americans strongly disapprove of Trump’s job performance,” Silver notes. “Just 21.7 percent strongly approve of the job he’s doing, while another 17.2 percent only somewhat approve.”

Trump’s disapproval is higher than his approval even in Texas.

Zoom out, and you see a broader negativity.

One year ago, in late May 2025, Americans were almost as likely to say we were on the right track (44%) as the wrong track (51%). That 7-point gap has steadily grown for 12 months, and it’s now a 26-point gap, with 60% saying “wrong track” and only 34% saying “right track,” according to the RCP average.

Consumer confidence fell this past month to an all-time low in the University of Michigan’s measure. Gallup’s economic confidence index fell to the lowest level since the peak of Bidenflation.

This collapse in economic confidence is concentrated among independents and Republicans who are iffy on Trump, noted John Carney, the economics correspondent at Breitbart (and my older brother).

“Back in mid-February, the Economist/YouGov poll found that 58 percent of registered Republicans said the economy was getting better, and just 18 percent said it was getting worse,” John noted. “That gives us a net positive score of 33 percent. In the most recent poll, taken on May 15-18, the net positive has fallen to just two percent.”

What has happened since mid-February? For one thing, Trump inserted the U.S. into a war of choice in the Middle East, something Trump had avoided doing his first term — and something that brought down the GOP two decades ago.

Iran’s retaliation included blocking passage into or out of the Persian Gulf via the Strait of Hormuz. This has sent gas prices skyrocketing, to $4 per gallon or higher for nearly two months. The national average is currently at $4.40 according to AAA.

Midterm meltdown

Trump, of course, will not be on the ballot in 2026, and cannot seek a third term in 2028. So the main casualties of his cratering popularity will be Republicans running for Congress, governor, state legislature, and other public offices.

When pollsters ask voters whether they intend to vote Democratic or Republican for Congress, Democrats come out way ahead. Democrats are dominating in the generic congressional poll right now, at 49% to 41% in the RCP average. (At least three major pollsters have put Democrats at or above 50%, which is rare, historically.)

Democrats’ lead of 8 points is way up from their 2-point lead back in October. It’s also a far larger lead than either party has held in late May of a midterm election year, according to RCP historical data. For comparison, in 2018 during Trump’s first term, Democrats had a 4-point lead in May and proceeded to gain 41 seats in the House. It’s twice as bad for Republicans now.

Some of the key U.S. Senate races have recently shifted at least slightly in Democrats’ favor. For instance, the Carolina Journal has been polling the North Carolina Senate race for months. Last September, Democrat Roy Cooper led Republican Michael Whatley by 4 points. By November, it was 8 points. In the May survey, Cooper led by 11.

Similarly, in New Hampshire, Democrat Chris Pappas seems to be slowly expanding his poll lead over Republican Chris Sununu.

If Trump’s popularity and Americans’ view of the economy continues downward, these negative trends will become more visible. It’s possible Democrats, despite an unfavorable Senate map, could take over the upper chamber in the 2026 elections.

Again, some of this is unexceptional.

Barack Obama and George W. Bush both took second-term midterm drubbings — Republicans took the Senate and expanded their House majority under Obama in 2014, and Democrats took both chambers in 2006 under Bush.

But a Year Six disaster is not inevitable: In 1998, under Bill Clinton, Republicans gained zero Senate seats and actually lost five seats in the House.

Back in 1986, under Reagan, it was mixed: Democrats retook the Senate, made modest gains in the House, but actually lost a net of eight governorships.

How are midterms reflected in the following presidential election? There’s no clear historical answer on this.

After the 2006 and 2014 drubbings, the party doing drubbing continued its winning ways and captured the White House two years later. Two years after the minor drubbing in 1986, Republicans held the White House. Two years after the break-even elections of 1998, Republicans won the White House (just barely).

All that is to say that the 2028 elections will be determined more by nominee strength than by party. But in 2026, Republicans may not be so lucky.

The midterm elections are typically the president’s report card, and voters are not happy with the work Trump is turning in.

Only about 30% of voters approve of the Iran war, and even fewer approve of how he’s addressing the cost of living — which was the biggest single issue in the 2024 elections.

How much can we blame the war with Iran?

A big reason people liked Trump in both the 2016 primary and through his first five (non-consecutive) years in the White House was that he avoided the pitfall of every post-Cold War president from Clinton to Obama: Trump didn’t enter the U.S. into a war of choice that was distant from U.S. interests.

Then, on Feb. 28, without congressional authority, Trump ordered the military to assassinate Iran’s leaders and attack its territory. Trump promised it would be over quickly, but now the war is three months old, and gas prices are not coming down.

The war and the gas prices resulting from it are a big reason for taking economic optimism, for sure. They also likely contribute to Trump’s and the GOP’s falling approval ratings. But the bad polling trends for Republicans and Trump generally started late last year, before the attack on Iran. The right-track-wrong track numbers started souring last May.

BLUE WAVE OR RED WALL? REPUBLICANS HOPE A FAVORABLE MAP CAN COUNTER TERRIBLE CONDITIONS

It’s reasonable then to suspect that Trump’s other problems — including stubborn inflation (aside from gas prices) and his family’s sketchy business dealings — are harming the GOP. This pre-Iran trend also suggests that the numbers won’t simply reverse if the Strait of Hormuz reopens and gas prices fall.

The Republican Party’s problem is deeper than gas prices, and so things won’t get better before November. The only question is whether things get worse.