2026 midterm elections live updates: Latest news, results, and analysis

If you wanted to pick a red state to be a case study in how to alienate supporters of President Donald Trump, then it would be Kansas.

Transcontinental truck routes intersect just outside Salina, about 100 miles from the geographic center of the country. Need to talk to a trucker about the impact of diesel prices? That’s the spot.

The impact of Immigration and Customs Enforcement deportations on the agricultural economy? Head to Dodge City in the west, where federal agents have been raiding meatpacking plants, sending shockwaves through legal as well as undocumented migrants.

Want to know about how Trump’s policies have affected beef producers? Then stop off at a sales ring where ranchers will complain about opening up the country to cheap imports.

And what about farmers, who worry about China closing down soybean markets in a trade war and the price of diesel sending their costs soaring?

The president won the state by 16 points just two years ago, but now it is very definitely in play for Democrats hoping to pick up a Senate seat.

And so Trump is flying to Wichita later Monday to campaign for Sen. Roger Marshall (R-KS), whose reelection effort has been buffeted by all those headlines. Earlier this month, Washington Secrets spent a day with him, visiting the places where he grew up and worked.

Trump’s decision to appear in Wichita, specifically, shines a light on the Republican strategy in the state.

The city, known as the “aviation capital of the world,” is the main battleground.

Adam Hamilton, the Democratic candidate, will clean up in the suburbs of Kansas City, in the northeast of the state. That is where he founded a megachurch, and he will do well in Johnson County, home to about 1 in 4 of the state’s voters.

Marshall, like other Republicans across the nation, can rely on support in the rural west of the state.

So to win, he will have to run up the vote in Sedgwick County, with Wichita at its center. The county counts for about 18% of voters, including a high proportion of independents.

Secrets wonders whether he will address those awkward comments he made recently about Bombardier, one of the city’s major employers!

You can CLICK HERE to subscribe and read more of Washington Secrets.

President Donald Trump waved off concerns about his trip to historically red Kansas on Monday, telling reporters that the “polls are fake” and the race between incumbent Sen. Roger Marshall (R-KS) and Democrat Adam Hamilton “shouldn’t be” close.

“He’s one of the best senators. He’s, I think, he’s tied or up by a little bit, according to polls — look, the polls are fake — but according to polls. So I want to make sure Roger Marshall gets in. Roger Marshall is a great man, and he’s a great senator. So that’s why I’m going,” Trump told reporters during a press gaggle ahead of his trip to Kansas on Monday.

WHY IS TRUMP HEADING TO KANSAS? AND WHY WICHITA?

Trump will campaign from Marshall in a Park City rally on Monday. Trump’s rally for the first-term senator comes just two days ahead of Marshall’s Wednesday night debate against Hamilton. According to RealClearPolling’s average, Marshall has a 0.3-percentage-point margin over Hamilton in the state Trump won by over 16 percentage points in 2024.

Republican-backed midterm advertisements mentioning President Donald Trump dropped to just 1% of all GOP ads on the airwaves in October.

Trump’s name had been mentioned in 47% of all Republican video advertisements in May, marking a sharp drop from the primary season compared to the month before general elections, according to a report on advertising data from AdImpact.

The advertising analysis follows moves from several Trump-endorsed candidates to distance themselves from the president and the war with Iran as his approval rating lowers and the war polls as unpopular with American citizens. Trump’s presidential approval rating sat at 33% in a new poll from the Washington Post, ABC News, and Ipsos.

Former White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt will headline Turning Point USA’s “Make Heaven Crowded Tour” rally in New Hampshire this week.

Leavitt, who previously ran for U.S. House in the Granite State, is headed to her home state just three weeks before voters hit the polls in the midterm elections and make their voices heard in the state’s tight Senate race between Republican former Sen. John E. Sununu and Democratic candidate Rep. Chris Pappas (D-NH).

Leavitt left her role leading the White House Press Office at the end of August, transitioning to President Donald Trump’s super PAC MAGA Inc. and to Fox News as a contributor. She has not yet hit the campaign trail in 2026.

Trump has endorsed Sununu for his race against Pappas, which is currently listed as “leans Democratic” by the Cook Political Report. Pappas is currently favored against Sununu by an average of 6.5 percentage points, per RealClear Polling’s average.

Former President Barack Obama is set to appear with Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-GA) and Democratic gubernatorial candidate Keisha Lance Bottoms at a rally in Atlanta at the end of October.

“Georgia! I’ll be in Atlanta on October 28 for a rally to support @KeishaforGA, @Ossoff, and Democrats fighting to make your life better,” Obama wrote in a post on X.

Obama has endorsed Ossoff and Bottoms as they vie for election in the Peach State. Cook Political Report has listed Ossoff’s race against Rep. Mike Collins (R-GA) as a “likely Democrat” race, while Bottoms is in a tighter toss-up race against Republican Rick Jackson.

Texas’s two Senate candidates, Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico, will appear in the same city on Monday evening, as each will hold a rally in Fort Worth at 7 p.m. local time on the first day of early voting in the Lone Star State.

Paxton’s rally will include an appearance from Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., with doors opening at 6 p.m., per The Texan. His rally will take place at a wedding venue downtown, just 14 miles away from Talarico’s rally at a local high school.

The Republican attorney general recently launched his “Come and Take It” tour, a statewide bus trip that will include more than 30 stops with just over two weeks until Election Day.

The two candidates are wrapped up in a heated toss-up Senate election, with Talarico leading Paxton by an average 2.2-percentage-point margin in recent polling, according to RealClearPolling’s average. Texas has not elected a Democratic senator since the late 1980s.

Eighteen states across the United States will begin early voting ahead of the 2026 midterm elections this week, as the Nov. 3 Election Day is just three weeks away.

Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Connecticut, South Carolina, and Texas each begin their early voting process on Monday. While Hawaii, Louisiana, Missouri, Utah, Wisconsin, West Virginia, Delaware, Maryland, Florida, Michigan, New Jersey, and New York all begin later this week.

Several of these states have high-profile Senate and gubernatorial races, with Alaska, Michigan, and Texas each having toss-up Senate races, while Wisconsin has a toss-up gubernatorial race, per the Cook Political Report.

Rick Jackson, the Republican running for governor in Georgia, is skipping out on President Donald Trump’s Peach State rally in Macon, set for Saturday.

Jackson’s campaign told the Atlanta Journal-Constitution that Jackson would “be serving as a force multiplier and rallying Republicans in Cherokee County to turnout” instead of heading to the Saturday rally. Jackson has appeared in multiple rallies with Trump so far this year.

The news comes hours after the outlet released a new Trump approval rating poll in Georgia, pinging the president at just 42% approval in the state he won in 2024. Trump’s disapproval rating in the state sits at 55%, per the new poll.

President Donald Trump is making a campaign swing through seven key 2026 states this week with three weeks left to go before the November elections.

Trump will be stopping in Park City, Kansas; Greenville, North Carolina; Clemson, South Carolina; Sioux City, Iowa; Fort Myers, Florida; Macon, Georgia; and St. Clair County, Michigan for rally stops. Five of his seven stops are in states currently held by Republican senators, while Georgia and Michigan are both current blue Senate seats. Kansas, Iowa, and Michigan are each toss-up Senate seats, per Cook Political Report.

Vice President JD Vance will hit three stops this week: Hendersonville, North Carolina; Cincinnati, Ohio; and North Platte, Nebraska. Ohio, where Vance is from, has both a toss-up Senate and gubernatorial race, as Republicans aim to keep both seats.

The leading Democratic Senate fundraising political action committee, Senate Majority PAC, is taking its advertising funding out of North Carolina’s upper chamber race in a vote of confidence for Democratic former Gov. Roy Cooper against Republican candidate Michael Whatley.

The Democratic PAC is moving its advertising funding away from Cooper’s “likely Democratic” seat while pouring money into Michigan’s Senate race, where Democrat Abdul el Sayed is in a toss-up race against former GOP Rep. Mike Rogers, per CNN.

Senate Majority PAC’s money movement comes as Cooper leads Whatley by an average plus-9.6-percentage-point margin in polling, according to RealClearPolitics, while el Sayed leads Rogers by only a 2.6-percentage-point average margin.

Just three weeks away from the November midterm elections, Senate Majority PAC is also pumping money into Kansas’s Senate race to support Democrat Adam Hamilton as he challenges incumbent Sen. Roger Marshall (R-KS), while pulling money out of Georgia’s Senate race.

Both Democratic and Republican political action committees are redistributing their advertising dollars away from Georgia as incumbent Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-GA) pulls strong polling numbers ahead of his challenger, GOP Rep. Mike Collins (R-GA).

Ossoff has led Collins above the margin of error in recent polling, with a plus-9-percentage-point average margin over his Republican challenger, according to RealClearPolitics. Cook Political Report pings the race as “likely Democratic,” with Polymarket odds favoring Ossoff 96% to Collins’s 6%.

As the polling headwinds sit behind Ossoff, the Republican’s upper-chamber powerhouse PAC, Senate Leadership Fund, and the Democratic version, Senate Majority PAC, each pulled advertising funds from the state last week. The Senate Majority PAC will also remain off the Georgia advertising airwaves this week, according to outlets including Politico and CNN.

Former Sen. Joe Manchin (I-WV) is headed to Maine to stump for his friend and former colleague Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) as she campaigns for reelection.

Collins is facing Democrat Troy Jackson, the former state Senate president, in the toss-up race. Jackson has led Collins slightly in recent polling, mostly within the margin of error, according to RealClearPolling.

Manchin endorsed Collins in September, calling her an “independent, free-thinking” Republican. Manchin said he is going to the Pine Tree State to “debunk” the notion that she has been a pro-Trump senator, according to Semafor, which broke the news of Manchin’s travel.

“She is not a Trump senator,” Manchin told the outlet.

The U.S. Chamber of Commerce endorsed Texas Republican Senate nominee Ken Paxton over his opponent, Democratic state Rep. James Talarico.

“The choice is clear in Texas,” Neil Bradley, Executive Vice President and Chief Policy Officer of the Chamber of Commerce, which is the nation’s largest pro-business group, said on Sunday. “Attorney General Ken Paxton has been a defender of free enterprise and pro-growth policies that empower American businesses to thrive. He has pushed back against federal overreach, helped preserve a low-tax environment, and defended the energy sector from burdensome mandates. Paxton understands that true economic prosperity relies on a fair and predictable justice system. We look forward to working together on meaningful legal reform that shields job creators from lawsuit abuse and red tape.”

Both Talarico and Paxton held rallies Sunday evening, ahead of early voting beginning on Monday.

Click here to read more.

Dozens of Iowans who spoke with the Washington Examiner ahead of Election Day said that Iowa “feeds the world,” a tagline that underscores agriculture’s importance to the state and is supported by the data. Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-IA) and Democrat Josh Turek, who are in a dead heat to replace outgoing Sen. Joni Ernst (R-IA), will need to court farmers’ votes to clinch victory.

Turek has been able to capitalize on dissatisfaction among farmers and agricultural workers with Trump’s tariff policies, which have dampened the state’s export markets, as well as the war in Iran, which has caused a spike not only in diesel prices but also in fertilizer and other inputs.

Hinson, like many other Republicans across the country, has had the difficult job of distancing herself from the Trump administration’s economic policies that have hurt farmers without compromising her partisan identity.

Turek said twice during the debate last week that Iowans are facing a “farmageddon” with the high rate of family farm foreclosures across the state. The situation for small-scale farmers, Turek said, has only been exacerbated by the 10% tariff on soybeans and the 50% tariff on Canadian goods, which affects fertilizers like potash.

“We produce more soybeans here in Iowa than any other state,” Turek said. “Our farmers are hurting, and it is because of the tariffs, which Ashley Hinson voted in favor of five times.”

Hinson responded to Turek’s accusation by saying she has already used her position in the House and the “R” beside her name to advance the interests of Iowans with the president.

“I’m listening to their concerns, and when they do have an issue, I’m advocating directly to the administration,” Hinson said. “I talked to President Trump just last Wednesday about soybeans and making sure we are getting that deal across the finish line.”

Click here to read more.

Actor Matthew McConaughey made a petition to voters on Sunday, calling upon independents to make elections a “fair fight.”

“They’ve been telling us for years that an independent vote is a wasted vote,” McConaughey said. “Well, a great question for our time is: ‘How’s that unwasted vote been working out for you?’”

McConaughey lives in Texas, where Republican Senate nominee Ken Paxton is facing opponent James Talarico in a competitive race in the historically red state. The actor did not endorse either Texas candidate.

“I am here endorsing two things: fairness and reality,” McConaughey said.

Click here to read more.