The polling firm American Research Group has a new survey of Iowa Republican voters, showing Mitt Romney leading with 21 percent, Michele Bachmann receiving 15 percent of support, and Rick Perry with 14 percent. A full 15 percent of those polled are undecided. ARG polled 600 likely Republican caucus goers in Iowa.

Without the ARG poll, the RealClearPolitics average still shows Perry with a seven-point lead in Iowa at 25 percent, with Bachmann and Romney tied for second at 18 percent. In 2010, poll reader Nate Silver ranked ARG among the worst pollsters in terms of accuracy.