Statistical analysis news website FiveThirtyEight unveiled its 2020 presidential election forecast model with ample disclaimers following 2016 blowback and anger toward election forecasters when President Trump surprised many by winning the election.
This year’s FiveThirtyEight forecast, based on 40,000 simulations of likely electoral outcomes, gives Trump about a 29% chance of winning the election and presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden a 71% chance.
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