In Nebraska, Democratic officials have effectively aligned themselves with independent Senate candidate Dan Osborn rather than fully consolidating behind their own nominee. Democratic Senate candidate Cindy Burbank has publicly signaled she intends to eventually leave the race to unify anti-Republican voters behind Osborn, who mounted a surprisingly competitive challenge in 2024 against Sen. Deb Fischer (R-NE).

A similar dynamic is emerging in Montana, where independent candidate Seth Bodnar, the former president of the University of Montana, has built a stronger fundraising operation than the Democratic field that competed in Tuesday’s primary. Campaign finance reports show Bodnar outraised the combined Democratic field and also surpassed Republican nominee Kurt Alme, who is backed by President Donald Trump.

The race has also fueled speculation about whether Democrats could eventually consolidate behind an independent candidate rather than their own nominee, mirroring conversations unfolding in other red-state races this cycle. But Democratic Senate candidate Alani Bankhead publicly rejected suggestions that she planned to exit the race, writing on Instagram this week: “I will not drop out.”

In South Dakota, some Democratic operatives have shifted their attention toward independent Brian Bengs, a military veteran and former Democrat, even though the party nominated Julian Beaudion this week. Bengs previously ran against Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) as a Democrat in 2022 and lost by 43 points.

The same pattern is beginning to emerge in Alaska, where some Democrats believe independent candidate Bill Hill, a commercial fisherman and retired school superintendent, may represent the party’s best chance to defeat Republican Rep. Nick Begich (R-AK).

Hill raised more than $780,000 during the year’s opening quarter, outperforming Democrat Matt Schultz, a pastor who raised roughly $578,000 over a longer fundraising window. Delegates at the Alaska Democratic convention recently declined to formally endorse Schultz, while Hill attended convention events and has steadily accumulated labor endorsements.

The emerging playbook reflects a growing belief among some Democrats that, in states where Republicans dominate federal races, candidates may fare better running adjacent to the party rather than directly under its banner. But the strategy has exposed deep disagreements inside Democratic circles over whether the party should adapt to its brand problems in red states or work to repair them.

“It’s the stupidest thing I’ve ever heard,” Democratic strategist Michael Ceraso said of efforts by party-aligned groups to quietly boost independents while distancing themselves publicly from the Democratic label.

“If the human being themselves wants to not be associated with the Democratic Party, and they want to run as an independent, then run as an independent,” Ceraso said. “But please, to the Democratic Party, stop trying to be cute about it.”

Ceraso argued Democrats are overthinking the problem and focusing too heavily on branding rather than candidate quality and local engagement.

“Just tell donors you’re going to go into these communities to find the best candidates to run, and then go run them,” he said.

He also warned that Democratic strategists risk appearing dishonest to voters if party organizations quietly support independent candidates while pretending they are fully detached from Democratic infrastructure.

“Stop trying to talk to voters like they’re stupid,” Ceraso said.

Other Democratic strategists view the trend less as an abandonment of the party and more as a reflection of a broader anti-establishment political climate.

“These folks seem to all understand that party brands are not popular,” Democratic strategist Jon Reinish said, pointing to states such as Nebraska and Alaska where voters have historically shown more openness to independent-minded candidates.

“In times where a uniting factor is broad dissatisfaction with establishments, that also includes party structures,” Reinish said.

Still, Reinish acknowledged the strategy comes with risks for Democrats, particularly because there is no guarantee that independent candidates would caucus with Democrats if elected.

“There is no nudge, nudge, wink, wink, or promise that they would even caucus with Democrats,” he said. “If they win as independents, they’re going to have to approach a career in the House or Senate as just that — independents.”

Currently, there are two independents serving in the Senate: Sens. Angus King of Maine and Bernie Sanders of Vermont. Both caucus with Democrats.

The strategy is not entirely new. Democrats and allied groups experimented with similar efforts in past cycles, including backing independent Greg Orman’s Senate bid against Republican Pat Roberts (R-KS) in Kansas in 2014. Republicans ultimately held the seat, though the race became unexpectedly competitive.

Democrats also point to Alaska’s 2014 gubernatorial race, when independent Bill Walker joined forces with Democratic nominee Byron Mallott in a unity ticket aimed at defeating Republican Gov. Sean Parnell. Mallott dropped his own campaign to run as Walker’s lieutenant governor, and the coalition ultimately won the race.

Some independent campaigns already rely on Democratic-aligned infrastructure behind the scenes, including ActBlue fundraising tools and consultants commonly tied to Democratic campaigns. National Democratic organizations in Washington have, in some races, refrained from aggressively attacking independents despite Democrats remaining on the ballot.

The broader debate underscores the difficult position Democrats face as they try to claw back relevance across rural America and heavily Republican states after years of electoral decline. Two decades ago, Democrats held a slight edge in Senate representation across many Midwestern and Great Plains states. Today, Republicans dominate the region.

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For some Democrats, independent candidates represent a pragmatic attempt to remain competitive in places where the party brand has deteriorated. For others, the strategy amounts to a tacit admission that Democrats have lost confidence in their own label.

“What will be very interesting to see,” Reinish said, “is whether Republicans eventually try the same strategy in blue states.”