The Lithuanian government fears the Baltic states will be Russia’s logical next target because the Kremlin has gone over a cliff in transforming the country’s economy into a war machine.
Lithuanian Minister of National Defense Robertas Kaunas told reporters during a press conference at his ministry’s headquarters in Vilnius that the “Russian economy is now built on war,” and he worries his own country is next on the chopping block after the conflict in Ukraine is normalized.
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“They will continue to build weapons, but after the war in Ukraine — where will those weapons go?” Kaunas warned. “It’s very concerning because Russia can at least try to start a new war, and this new war can be with the Baltic states.”
“From Russia, we’re facing incursion into our airspace with jets [and] cyberattacks,” the defense minister said. “It’s not a hypothetical threat.”
This is not a new concern — experts and think tanks, such as the Center for European Policy Analysis, have for years warned that “the Kremlin’s war machine will not stop in Ukraine” and that the next target is “probably in the Baltic states.” But repeated violations of European sovereignty and this week’s drone detonation on a Romanian apartment building are starting to make the threat feel palpably real and immediate.
Dmitry Medvedev, the former president of Russia and current deputy chairman of the Security Council of the Russian Federation, explicitly warned Europeans they were at war with his country in a message following the incident in Romania.
“Citizens of EU countries, you should realize your authorities have unilaterally entered into a war with Russia. So be vigilant and don’t be surprised by anything. The peaceful sleep is over. But you know who to ask why!”
Approximately 40% of Russia’s national budget is now geared toward military expenses and defense spending. Financial assets accumulated over the years through oil and gas sales have been cracked open to help fund the effort, and state funds pour into the development of the latest military technologies — such as kamikaze drones.
Kaunas asserted to reporters that “Russia is capable of building four times more weapons than all Europe can build together.”
The Baltic states are often considered the most obvious targets for Russia if the Kremlin were to undertake a new conflict, due to both their small size and strategic location. Together, the Baltic states have a population rivaling the state of Maryland. The three countries together have a GDP of approximately $180 billion — less than the GDP of Columbus, Ohio.
Lithuania’s border with Poland, known as the Suwalki Gap, is also widely recognized as perhaps the weakest point in NATO’s perimeter. The sparsely populated region is flanked by Russia on one side and ally Belarus on the other. In a hypothetical invasion, the two countries could pincer the border and sever the only land route into the Baltic states from the rest of NATO.
The Baltic states’ size and vulnerability have spurred them to be role models for other members of the alliance — always contributing at least 5% of their GDP to national defense.
Latvia began installing “dragon’s teeth” infrastructure along its border this week — massive anti-tank barriers made of concrete to “prevent unauthorized travel.”
Estonian authorities have similarly been building barriers along the Russian border to prevent unauthorized crossings or a possible “migration attack.”
A report published this month by the International Institute for Strategic Studies asserted that Russia’s war footing will prove unsustainable without a final push to transition its military from volunteer enlistment to mandatory conscription.
“In order to sustain its war, Russia will have to impose significant new command-like measures that forcibly mobilize human and material resources for the war effort,” the report states. “This will require it to curtail the last remaining post-Soviet market freedoms, labour freedom, and freedom of movement. Such measures will be highly disruptive and unpopular.”
The Kremlin maintains that it is not engaged in a “war” with Ukraine, but instead a “special military operation” to liberate Russian-speaking minority areas such as Donbas.
