On Feb. 20, six Supreme Court justices decided they understood American trade policy better than the president.
Chief Justice John Roberts, joined by Justices Sonya Sotomayor, Elena Kagan, Neil Gorsuch, Amy Coney Barrett, and Ketanji Brown Jackson, ruled 6-3 in Learning Resources, Inc. v. Trump — holding that IEEPA does not authorize tariffs. The White House spent approximately zero minutes sulking.
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By Feb. 24, a 10% global surcharge under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 was in effect, stacked on top of existing Section 232 and Section 301 duties on steel, aluminum, and Chinese goods. On April 2, the administration layered in up to 100% on patented pharmaceuticals under Section 232. The average effective tariff rate now stands at 11.8%, the highest since the early 1940s. China faces roughly 35% on general goods, 10% Section 122 stacked on 25% Section 301, with multiples on electric vehicles, solar panels, and semiconductors.
POLLUTION PIVOT: A NEW WAY FORWARD FOR TRUMP ON TARIFFS
The government collected $166 billion in IEEPA tariffs, which are now being refunded to more than 330,000 businesses. When the court eliminates one lever, this administration finds another.
I managed a family-office portfolio during President Donald Trump’s first tariff round in 2018–19. Here is what happened: Supply chains adapted, factories came back, and the sky didn’t fall. The same playbook is running across my private credit and family-office deal flow today. Tariffs are leverage. Leverage works when your counterpart has spent twenty years rigging the game.
China rigged it systematically. Its 15th Five-Year Plan references artificial intelligence 52 times, targeting 90% AI integration across its economy by 2030. Beijing launched a $138 billion national venture fund for quantum computing, semiconductors, and robotics. Meanwhile, American steel mills closed, solar manufacturers folded, and semiconductor jobs moved overseas — all while Chinese state enterprises dumped product below cost. That is not free trade. That is economic warfare dressed up as comparative advantage, and American workers paid for it in their paychecks.
The money is real. The surviving tariff regime — Sections 122, 232, and 301 — raises substantial revenue while building the legal architecture for what comes next. USTR launched Section 301 investigations on March 11, targeting 16 economies for excess manufacturing capacity and more than 60 for forced labor enforcement. Public comment closed April 15. Unlike Section 122, Section 301 carries no rate cap and no time limit. The administration is not retreating. It is building a more durable legal foundation.
Critics say tariffs raise prices, and they do. The Yale Budget Lab estimates the household cost at $760 to $940 this year, assuming Section 122 expires on schedule. That is real. So is the alternative: continued strategic dependence on a nation that plans for military dominance by 2049. We can pay a little more at the register today, or we can keep funding the People’s Liberation Army through our trade deficit. The first Trump tariff round demonstrated that American manufacturers adapt and grow when the rules finally favor them.
The deeper institutional failure is Congress’s habit of delegating power it doesn’t want accountability for, then hiding behind courts when the executive uses it. Jonathan Turley has said plainly: Separation of powers breaks down when legislatures abdicate, not when executives act. Congress created these statutes. The executive is using them. Courts can overturn statutes. They should not be designing trade policy from the bench.
TRUMP GOES SCORCHED EARTH AGAINST ‘WEAPONIZED AND UNJUST’ SUPREME COURT
Here is what nobody in Washington wants to say out loud: Section 122 expires on July 24. That is 76 days from today. Twenty-four state attorneys general are simultaneously in federal court trying to kill it even sooner. Congress needs to codify reciprocal tariffs tied to actual subsidies, pass onshoring tax credits for critical manufacturing, and push permit reform that doesn’t study projects into oblivion — all before Beijing gets to write the next chapter.
The families who watched their 401(k)s rebuild under the first Trump term will cheer again when American steel, chips, and batteries are made here, by American workers earning American wages. Tariffs are not the endgame — building things in America is. The Founders signed America’s permission slip 250 years ago. We do not need another one.
Jay Rogers is a financial professional with more than 30 years of experience in private equity, private credit, hedge funds, and wealth management. He has a BS from Northeastern University and has completed postgraduate studies at UCLA, UPenn, and Harvard. He writes about issues in finance, constitutional law, national security, human nature, and public policy.
