On Wednesday, President Donald Trump predicted that the Iran war would end “immediately after” the November election. On Monday, Iran and Gulf states are due to meet in Oman over passage through the Strait of Hormuz, while the Houthis have pushed to the edge of another maritime chokepoint at Bab al-Mandeb. The calendar is backward. Assuming Tehran will break on Washington’s timetable is a wager that no new front, market shock, or allied request will arrive first. Diplomacy should not be what finishes this war after the midterm elections. It should be how Trump reaches the midterm elections with the war moving toward an end.

Oman has produced something more useful than another appeal for calm. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said last week that Tehran and Muscat had made “significant progress” on a temporary transit route through Hormuz. Earlier discussions included a joint corridor and mine-clearing. Iran now says the arrangement would not reopen the strait immediately, and major disputes remain. That makes it an opening to test, not a breakthrough to celebrate. Only Washington can exchange calibrated relief from sanctions or blockade for measurable Iranian performance.