Russia’s naval parade last week was all about sending a message to the West.
It occurred a few weeks after a British warship entered within 12 miles of the Crimean coast (Crimea being occupied by Russia since 2014). Vladimir Putin cited this operation as a “provocation.” So, during the parade spectacle, Putin made sure to tout Russia’s weapons modernization program. He unveiled a new Borei-class nuclear ballistic missile submarine. Six associated strike weapons are in development.
That’s just the start.
One of Russia’s other new nuclear submarines, the Yasen-class, threatens to evade detection from U.S military sensors. Other surface vessels were also featured at the parade, notably the Kasatonov and others in its class. This vessel is planned to carry 3M22 Tsirkon hypersonic anti-ship cruise missiles, one of the nuclear developments highlighted by Putin in a 2018 speech. On technologies like the Kasotonov and the Tsirkon, Putin asserted that “[Russia] can detect underwater, surface, or aerial enemies and target them if a lethal strike is necessary.”
Russia is also boosting its non-strategic nuclear stockpile. While the United States has a single non-strategic nuclear bomb, Russia is estimated to have dozens of such weapons already deployed. Moscow is also reportedly renovating its entire nuclear arsenal. Modernizing these stockpiles gives Russia a unique advantage in its hunt for Great Power status and the flexibility to threaten adversaries across the range of conflict. Touting these developments, Russia demonstrates its strategy centers on power projection and nuclear deterrence. Nowhere is this more apparent than the Mediterranean Sea.
The Mediterranean is Putin’s first stop, thanks to its easy access to Europe, the Middle East, and North Africa. It is in this theater that Russia has tested the U.S. Navy’s capabilities, as in 2016 when Russia deployed submarines to shadow the USS Eisenhower aircraft carrier.
Russia is also strengthening its force disposition on its Western border. In September, Russia plans to conduct military exercises with Belarus. It claims this is a response to NATO activity over the last year. Additionally, Russia’s Minister of Defense Sergey Shoygu has announced that “by the end of the year, about 20 formations and military units will be formed in the Western Military District.”
So what should the U.S. do in response?
The Navy should be a focus. It should invest in patrol boats around coastal areas and expand reconnaissance missions in the Black Sea. Moscow believes its muscle-flexing deters adversaries from venturing into the Mediterranean and Black Sea, so the U.S. must scale up efforts in both.
Most of all, the U.S. must take note. Russia is employing its limited resources to build out potent warfighting capabilities. Putin isn’t looking for friends.
Audrey Pederson is a researcher for Dr. Alma Keshavarz, an international security researcher, at ℅ Futures, LLC launching a career in military intelligence.
Sam Abodo is a 2021 Hamilton National Fellow at the Alexander Hamilton Society.
