Supporters of California Gov. Gavin Newsom, including Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, are trying to portray the state’s recall election as an extension of the Jan. 6 riot and “voter suppression.” But the polls paint a different story.

The most recent poll, courtesy of Survey USA and the San Diego Tribune, found that 51% of likely California voters would vote to remove Newsom from office, compared to 40% who would support him. That’s a marked shift from May, when the same polling outfit found Newsom ahead of the recall 47% to 36%.