Democrats are trying to take over both chambers, and voters are deciding competitive races from Maine all the way to Alaska today. But that doesn’t mean you need to stay up late to know the headline results.
Shortly after 9 p.m. Eastern, enough races might be settled in the Democrats’ favor to guarantee they will control both chambers.
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Yes, 13 states will still have polls open until 10 p.m. or later, but the Senate and House maps are such that the late-closing races might all be foregone conclusions or icing on a Democratic cake — and I’m not even talking about a generational tsunami here.
Without any great upsets — taking only the Senate races that the Cook Political Report rates as favoring Democrats or as toss-ups — the Dems can lock up 51 seats just from states whose polls close at 9 p.m. or earlier.
Democrats start with 34 senators not up for reelection. Add in the nine “Solid D” races, and the Dems are at 43.
Then Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-GA) is very likely to be declared the victor just after 7 p.m., as is former Gov. Roy Cooper (D-NC) shortly after polls close there at 7:30 p.m. That would put Dems at 45.
Also after 7:30 p.m., we’ll learn the fate of former Ohio Sen. Sherrod Brown, who leads in most polls and could become Democratic senator No. 46.
Polls in Maine and most of Kansas, both rated as toss-ups by Cook Political Report, close at 8 p.m., as do the last polls in New Hampshire, which the newsletter rates as “lean Democratic.” So even without any major upsets, the Democrats could have 49 Senate seats in hand before 9 p.m.
Then, at 9 p.m., the last polls close in Michigan, and polls close in Minnesota. Cook Political Report rates both races as “lean Democratic,” and Nate Silver puts the chances of a Democratic win at 87% and 92%, respectively. That is, these races might not be terribly close, so Abdul el Sayed in Michigan and Peggy Flanagan in Minnesota may be declared the winners right after 9 p.m.
Those two wins could give Democrats 51 seats.
In Oregon, polls — ballot drop-off locations, really — will still be open until 11 p.m., so networks might not call it a Democratic takeover until Democrats grab another seat, such as state Rep. James Talarico winning in Texas. But Oregon is a safe Democratic hold.
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And, of course, later in the night, Democrats could be declared winners in tighter races, such as Nebraska or South Carolina, and in Alaska, where polls close much later. But there’s a very good chance those pickups would pad the Dem majority rather than make it.
So if you live in the Eastern time zone and all you want to know is who will control the Senate, you might be in bed before the clock strikes 10.