Had the midterm elections been held one year ago, it would have been a disaster for Republicans.

Democrats reliably held double-digit margins over Republicans on the generic ballot. President Trump’s job approval was firmly below 40 percent and had been on a downward trajectory ever since his election. The attempted “repeal and replace” of Obamacare had failed, leaving the party in the worst of all worlds: with swing voters put off, the original healthcare law still in place, and the party’s base deflated. The tax reform bill was days away from being rolled out, with public polling showing Americans opposed the bill by around a 15-point margin.