President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey has situated himself as the main obstacle to a ceasefire between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Erdogan is fueling the conflict with arms, fighters, and intelligence support for Azerbaijan.

The challenge is increasingly serious. What began last weekend as a conflict over a disputed territory now threatens to spiral into all-out war. Numerous Turkish military flights have been transiting between Turkey and Azerbaijan, and Syrian fighters under Turkish authority have been deployed alongside the Azerbaijani armed forces. But while Erdogan claims his support for Baku is simply about assisting that nation in its own defense, the reality is different and darker. Ultimately, this is not about helping Azerbaijan defend itself. It is about Erdogan seeking to dominate and cow a long-hated adversary, and at the same time, buffer his rising domestic narrative of nationalist expansionism.