It took Russian troops just hours to spread out across Nagorno-Karabakh after Azerbaijani leader Ilham Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan agreed to a ceasefire on Nov. 9, ending the 45-day war between Azerbaijan and Armenia over the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region. The ability to station troops in Nagorno-Karabakh fulfilled an outcome which the Kremlin had sought since the early 1990s.

For Armenians, the war’s outcome is a disaster. While they held their own against an Azerbaijani invasion for 40 days, they largely collapsed in the final five days. In the end, what tipped the balance was not Azerbaijan, but the fact that the Armenians were outgunned — not by Azerbaijan, but by Israel and Turkey who provided Azerbaijan with several billion dollars in drones which Baku, Jerusalem, and Ankara used to terrifying effect. Turkey also put into Azerbaijan’s service F-16s and brought Syrian Arab mercenaries from Idlib and elsewhere. As for the United States, it has provided oil-rich Azerbaijan with approximately $100 million in military equipment between 2018 and 2019, sales possible only after the State Department signed a waiver saying that Azerbaijan would adhere to a diplomatic process to resolve its conflict with Armenia.