After months of late-night threats, offline and online backchanneling, and eleventh-hour temporary reprieves, President Donald Trump has finally enacted 25% tariffs on imports from our two top trading partners, Mexico and China. In the process, Trump has made the highest-stakes gamble on his presidency, first and second terms.

Trump retroactively paused tariffs on specific auto imports for at least another month, but the erasure of all New York Stock Exchange gains since winning back the presidency on Nov. 5, 2024, shows investors broadly never believed that Trump would go through with his tariff regime. And given the risks, they would be right not to.