The Ukraine war is like a Russian doll. A series of five increasingly complex geopolitical questions encases a solid core of historical conflict. That core issue is whether Ukraine should be independent of Russia or whether, as often in its history, it falls so far within Russia’s sphere of interest that it becomes a second Belarus, a province of President Vladimir Putin’s revived empire. The thwarting of Russia’s 2022 invasion has resolved this question in Ukraine’s favor.

The second layer of the doll is whether Ukraine’s postwar territory includes Crimea, annexed by Russia in 2014, and the eastern and southern regions that have been annexed by Russia since 2022. The third layer is the nature of Ukraine’s sovereignty: whether postwar Ukraine is free to pursue its own policies, especially on joining the European Union and NATO, or whether these must be decided over Ukraine’s head.