When Sen. Ben Nelson, D-Neb., announced his retirement, Democrats received a quick reminder of how bleak 2012 could prove for their Senate prospects. The retirement of Democratic Sen. Kent Conrad in North Dakota gives Republicans a near-gimmee. The open Nebraska seat, for which two strong Republicans are already in contention, could be a second. And that would leave Democrats no margin for error as they seek to defend against a GOP takeover of Congress’ upper chamber.
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Democrats’ best hope in Nebraska, many have said, would be for former Sen. Bob Kerrey, D to return and run for his old seat. Kerrey, who is slightly more liberal than Nelson, recently finished a stormy tenure as president of The New School in New York City. (He is a decorated and wounded Vietnam veteran, and the leader of a Navy SEAL team which, as he admitted in 2001, participated in a massacre of civilians. Kerrey took responsibility for his team’s actions when The New York Times explored the incident over ten years ago.)
Magellan Strategies, a Republican firm of whose work I am not really a fan, has released the first poll that I am aware of testing Kerrey in head-to-head matchups against the two leading Republican candidates. In both cases, he loses and fails to pull more than 40 percent support. Attorney General Jon Bruning beats him, 51 to 40 percent. Treasurer (and Former Attorney General) Don Stenberg, who litigated the pro-life side in the landmark Stenberg v. Carhart Supreme Court case, beats Kerrey, 47 to 39 percent.
Even factoring in the Republican lean that Magellan’s polls tend to carry, this is an ugly poll, considering that Kerrey is probably the best known and most revered Democrat in the state. For Republicans, this means they might not have to worry too much about who among their primary candidates is “more electable.”
But for Democrats, this has a deeper strategic significance. If they begin the 2012 cycle ceding two seats, their odds of holding the Senate majority are very slim. As they decide which battles will merit significant expenditures, they might have to fight with an eye toward limiting the damage in anticipation of the 2014 Senate elections. In that cycle — largely thanks to their success in 2008 — the map is simply brutal for them. They would do well to avoid letting Republicans have a filibuster-proof Senate majority in 2015.
