PPP: Dems’ enthusiasm gap is back

Published August 19, 2011 4:00am ET



Democratic pollster PPP, whose very accurate surveys of the recent races in Wisconsin have won it plaudits, poses a new problem to the Democrats — or rather, an old problem that’s back. Their base is demoralized:

Only 48% of Democrats on our most recent national survey said they were ‘very excited’ about voting in 2012. On the survey before that the figure was 49%. Those last two polls are the only times all year the ‘very excited’ number has dipped below 50%.

In 13 polls before August the average level of Democrats ‘very excited’ about voting next year had averaged 57%. It had been as high as 65% and only twice had the number even dipped below 55%.

It had seemed earlier in the year like Democrats had overcome the ‘enthusiasm gap’ that caused so much of their trouble in last year’s elections. But now 54% of Republicans say they’re ‘very excited’ about casting their ballots next year, indicating that the problem may be back.

A six-point enthusiasm gap is only a bit less than the eight-point gap that PPP estimated in October 2010.

There’s more than a year for Obama to right the ship. Or capsize it.