The Islamic Republic of Iran created the Persian Gulf Strait Authority to collect tolls for ships seeking to transit the Strait of Hormuz’s international waters. The normal toll? $2 million. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps reportedly controls the Authority.
That matters because the U.S. designates the Revolutionary Guards in its entirety as a terrorist group. This means that any country paying tolls on behalf of its ships is financing terrorism and should be subject to sanctions. At the same time, with Pakistani mediation, President Donald Trump’s negotiating team is negotiating with Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf, the speaker of the parliament and an ambitious four-time presidential loser best known to Iranians for his combination of ambition and corruption. Ghalibaf, however, is not the only would-be power broker in the Islamic Republic; indeed, it is not clear he holds any sway among the Iranians whose adverse actions Trump seeks to change.
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Beyond nominal U.S. allies pumping funds into the coffers of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the Trump team has not explained whether Ghalibaf controls the Strait Authority. If he does not, there is a huge problem in Trump’s strategy. Absent an active supreme leader — and there remains no proof-of-life for nominal Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, who has not been seen since his appointment — there are multiple Revolutionary Guards factions and power brokers; it is unclear whether any single one can deliver his competitors.
If Trump’s selection of Ghalibaf as the focus of his outreach centers upon Ghalibaf’s own willingness to talk rather than any real power in Iran, then there is a major problem. Put in real estate terms, if Trump wished to purchase a Manhattan skyscraper, he should negotiate with its owner rather than the panhandler out front.
If Ghalibaf can deliver, Trump’s strategy falls short in a different way. Ghalibaf’s rivals within the Revolutionary Guard seek to undermine him and depict him as treasonous for his dealings. If Trump wants to see Ghalibaf succeed, he should eliminate his rivals, targeting Ahmad Vahidi and Saeed Jalili, for example.
Indeed, U.S. military dominance gave Trump the ability to pick his interlocutor. Trump might have demanded each figure beginning with the hardest-line negotiator. He should have started, for example, with Vahidi rather than Supreme National Security Council Secretary Ali Larijani. If Vahidi said no, like he would, then Trump should eliminate him, both removing a hard-line rival to any Iranian willing to deal and telegraphing a lesson about the cost of refusing America. If he said yes, the most dangerous rival would essentially acknowledge the defeat of the Islamic Republic’s ideology. While the first several targets for engagement might simply become targets for elimination, eventually the learning curve would take hold.
Once Trump has a credible partner, he should dictate the terms. The Iranian side projects strength, even when its hand is empty. Calling that bluff is important because it will further delegitimize the regime in the eyes of its own people and, more importantly, in the eyes of rank-and-file Guardsmen.
Because the regime now seeks to utilize its leverage over shipping to force concessions, Trump should discount his own advisors or mediators who counsel a deal that rewards Iran’s actions. Pakistani mediators will always be suspect; after all, they also mediated at times with the Taliban, all the while arming the group, sheltering Al Qaeda leader Usama bin Laden, and even allowing their own citizens to fight. Pakistan helped birth the Iranian nuclear program, with Pakistani nuclear scientist AQ Khan giving Tehran the initial blueprints.
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Iran will also pull out the Hormuz card for any future demand it has unless Trump extracts a price the regime cannot bear. Compromise now will only force future oil spikes.
Trump is in the driver’s seat, but he must play his own game and stop playing Iran’s.
Michael Rubin is a contributor to the Washington Examiner’s Beltway Confidential. He is director of analysis at the Middle East Forum and a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute.
