Republican senators on Wednesday introduced legislation that would significantly boost Ukraine’s defensive potential. Sponsored by Sen. James Risch of Idaho, the bill is titled the Guaranteeing Ukraine’s Autonomy by Reinforcing its Defense Act.
The GUARD Act is supported by Sens. John Barrasso, John Cornyn, Tom Cotton, Marco Rubio, and Pat Toomey.
It is important for two reasons.
First, it offers to do what President Joe Biden has thus far been unwilling to do: provide more immediate arms support to Ukraine and signal a willingness to show unilateral U.S. leadership in the event that U.S. allies in Europe kowtow to Moscow. Second, it reflects an understanding of President Vladimir Putin’s strategic calculus and a practical means of altering it.
Providing Ukraine with an additional $450 million in military financing in 2022, GUARD would also support Ukraine’s military modernization. It would replenish President Biden’s emergency spending account for Ukraine in the event he allocates funds already available. The bill would also designate Russia a state sponsor of terrorism in the event that it invades Ukraine.
These steps would allow Ukraine to impose significantly heavier costs on Russian forces in the event of any new invasion. As important, Putin will understand this enhanced combat potential. As Sen. Risch put it in his statement, “We cannot sit back and wait to react to Russian aggression. Congress must continue its strong support for the Ukrainian people and their right to sovereignty and self-defense.”
Equally important, and unlike President Biden, GUARD shows recognition of the truth that Putin has very little regard for diplomatic niceties.
Negotiation with Putin is eminently possible, but only where Putin faces a weighted balance of benefit over cost to engage in concessionary diplomacy. Where, as now, Putin holds a stranglehold over the strategic initiative, he will only increase his demands, threats, and extortion. This is a most dangerous diplomatic waltz: one in which Putin feels the political space to demand ever more and the security space to escalate military activity.
Of special importance in the legislation is the inclusion of restored sanctions on the Nord Stream 2 pipeline. Dropped from the 2022 Defense bill that passed Congress on Wednesday, the Nord Stream 2 sanctions are crucial toward forcing Putin’s government to pause before acting. The sanctions’ U.S.-unilateral quality also matters greatly.
Consider that new German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has rewarded Biden’s misguided prioritizing of German interests by proving himself even more sympathetic to Putin than his predecessor, Angela Merkel. Judged by Merkel’s standards, this is a truly ignominious feat. Scholz on Wednesday used a speech to the Bundestag to call for an overt appeasement strategy toward Russia. Coming just as his government has abandoned its commitment to NATO’s nuclear deterrence, has abandoned the 2%-of-GDP defense spending target, and as Russia demands that NATO pledge not to expand its membership, Scholz’s words do not portend well for the security of democratic sovereignty in Europe.
Nor, for that matter, should we be comforted by the indications that President Emmanuel Macron of France is determined to make concessions to Russia. This must be what Macron means when he speaks of “strategic independence” from NATO.
Or not.
Regardless, the merit behind this Senate GOP action is clear. Ukraine is a democracy that favors closer cultural, economic, and security links with the West. Its only crime is not to choose that which Putin would impose upon it. By his invasion in 2014 and associated threats now, Putin has undermined the post-WWII principle of democratic sovereignty. Biden appears cowed by his Russian opposite number. Until that changes, it will be up to Congress to lead.
Recalling their former laments of Russian aggression, Democrats should take example from their Republican colleagues. Putin does not respect mere words. He respects words bound to the credible provision of specific actions. GUARD offers that.
